Thursday, February 2, 2017

2/2/17 #AEHoops Roundup



*KenPom and RPI updated as of 5:00pm ET 2/2/17
** (Numbers in parenthesis are national rankings)
***DISCLAIMER: If you're not an Albany fan I probably like your team but hate your fanbase. Most of you annoy me, your players, however, are awesome... it actually bothers me how much I like most of them.***

Albany (14-10, 5-4) (KenPom: 148, RPI: 167)

Opponents
11/11 - @ Penn St., W 87-81
11/14 - @ Cincinnati, L 51-74
11/16 - Oneonta, W 97-56 (non d1)
11/19 - Grand Canyon, L 77-82 (neutral site)
11/20 - Brown, W 80-76 (neutral site)
11/27 - Siena, W 81-72
11/30 - Holy Cross, L 49-55
12/3 - @ Yale, L 55-59
12/7 - Marist, W 78-66
12/10 - Colgate, W 74-66
12/12 - @ Canisius, L 64-77
12/17 - St. Francis NY, W 87-60
12/20 - @ SMU, L 53-71
12/30 - @ Columbia, W 70-67
1/2 - Cornell, W 69-59
1/5 - @ UMass Lowell, L 79-85
1/8 - @ Stony Brook, L 70-72
1/11 - New Hampshire, L 67-75
1/16 - @ UMBC, W 77-50
1/19 - Binghamton, W 84-65
1/22 - Maine, W 81-63
1/25 - Vermont, L 49-60
1/28 - @ Hartford, W 74-61
2/1 - UMass Lowell, W 90-77

Since starting out conference play 0-3 the Great Danes have won five of their last six to sit at 5-4 which is good for a 4th place tie in the America East standings. The defense which gave up an average of 73.3 points per game during the 0-3 start has given up an average of 62.6 over their last six contests. Since the Great Danes have mixed in zone looks (mainly 1-3-1) on defense they've found their groove on the defensive side of the ball.

Stats View: As of today Albany has the most efficient offense in America East play at 115.4, while their improved defense sits fourth at 104.6. The Great Danes have hit 40% of their threes, good for second in the conference even though they've attempted a league low 120. Their +7 scoring differential is second to Vermont's.

My take: We'll soon find out if Albany can enter the race for second in the America East as they host Stony Brook and head to New Hampshire, both teams they lost to during their 0-3 start in conference play. While the Great Danes have won five of their last six, only the UMBC win was against a team with a winning conference record. Albany goes as their point guard David Nichols goes, if he's on offensively they're unstoppable....if he's off it's a crapshoot. The best backcourt in the America East appears ready for the showdown with Stony Brook...


Binghamton (12-12, 3-6) (KenPom: 290, RPI: 261)

Opponents
11/11 - Cornell, W 68-62
11/14 - @ St. John’s, L 61-77
11/16 - CCSU, W 72-70
11/18 - @ VCU, 42-81
11/22 - Ave Maria, W 95-77
11/23 - @FGCU, L 53-69
11/24 - Long Beach St, W 72-64 (neutral)
11/27 - @ FIU, L 57-74
11/30 - Mansfield, W 91-71
12/3 - @ St. Francis PA, W 73-70
12/7 - @ Colgate, W 73-64
12/10 - Loyola MD, L 85-90 (OT)
12/17 - Delaware St., W 85-66
12/21 - @ Army, L 60-71
12/30 - Marywood, W 101-54
1/5 - @ UMBC, L 71-85
1/8 - UMass Lowell, L 75-79
1/11 - Vermont, L 50-67
1/14 - @ New Hampshire, L 66-73
1/19 - @ Albany, L 65-84
1/22 - Stony Brook, W 71-67
1/25 - Hartford, W 76-55
1/29 - @ Maine, W 65-54
2/1 - UMBC, L 74-92

The Bearcats had won three straight conference games, a run which began with a nice home win over Stony Brook, before a double-digit home loss to UMBC in a contest in which they gave up 92 points. The road gets tough from here as four of their next five games are against teams in the top half of the league.

Stats View: Their offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency both rank 7th in the league as they don't excell in any areas on either side of the ball. On defense they've given up a league worst 55.9% shooting on two point field goal attempts.

My Take:  They did a nice job handling business against Hartford and Maine while the upset of Stony Brook may turn out to be the highlight of their season. Willie Rodriguez (14 ppg) and Marlon Beck (11 ppg) are the two players averaging double figures for them in conference play so far. They're just on the cusp of the bottom third of the league, and their ceiling may be the spot they're tied for now (sixth). There's just not enough rebounding or defense to make up for the lack of offense. Here's to the good times for a loyal student fanbase...
Hartford (6-17, 1-7) (KenPom: 333, RPI: 330)

Opponents
11/11 - CCSU, L 60-75
11/15 - Niagara, W 82-78 (OT)
11/16 - Rider, L 68-84
11/18 - @ Drexel, L 73-87
11/23 - Appalachian St., L 61-70
11/25 - @ Rutgers, L 75-77
11/27 - @ North Texas, L 78-81
11/30 - LIU Brooklyn, L 68-75
12/3 - Sacred Heart, W 87-79 (OT)
12/7 - @ Quinnipiac, L 79-99
12/9 - @ Boston College, W 65-63
12/13 - Dartmouth, W 70-66
12/22 - Navy, W 63-54
12/28 - @ Davidson, L 75-105
1/2 - @ Yale, L 72-88
1/8 - @ Vermont, L 54-85
1/11 - UMBC, L 68-84
1/14 - @ UMass-Lowell, L 55-71
1/16 - Maine, W 54-44
1/19 - @ Stony Brook, L 64-80
1/22 - New Hampshire, L 56-81
1/25 - @ Binghamton, L 55-76
1/28 - Albany, L 61-74

The Hawks are now 1-7 in conference and almost assured to fall to 1-8 as they host Vermont next. They've lost four in a row by an average of 18.75 points and they've been unable to put it together on either side of the ball. Jalen Ross continues to be a bright spot for them averaging 18.4 points and 4.5 rebounds through their 9 league games.

Stats View: Their 87.2 offensive efficiency is worst in the league while their 111.1 defensive efficiency is second worst. They've only connected on 29.5% of their three point attempts (second worst) and 42.4% of their two point attempts (worst) in conference play. The bright side is they've finally rebounded on the offensive end, hauling in 26.9% of their opportunities which is good for fourth in the conference.

My Take: Their best shot at getting another conference win according to KenPom is when they host Binghamton in their second to last contest. My money is on their contest at Maine, who they defeated once already...issue there is Maine can be sneaky good at home. It's all pretty bad in Hartford, so here is a highlight Hawks fans can enjoy at least...




UMASS Lowell (9-15, 3-6) (KenPom: 276, RPI: 286)

Opponents
11/11 - @ UMASS, L 76-90
11/14 - Wagner, W 87-76
11/16 - @ Indiana, L 78-100
11/19 - @ Fort Wayne, L 81-94
11/21 - @ Liberty, L 77-84
11/22 - Mississippi Valley St., W 76-71
11/26 - LIU Brooklyn, L 78-82 (OT)
11/29 - @ Marist, L 69-81
12/3 - NJIT, L 74-75
12/6 - @ Sacred Heart, L 82-91
12/18 - CCSU, W 86-69
12/21 - Boston University, W 77-75
12/23 - @ Loyola MD, L 60-69
12/29 - @ Cornell, W 96-98
1/5 - Albany, W 85-79
1/8 - Binghamton, W 79-75
1/11 - @ Maine, L 71-73
1/14 - Hartford, W 71-55
1/16 - Stony Brook, L 75-86
1/19 - @ Vermont, L 67-81
1/22 - UMBC, L 86-102
1/25 - @ New Hampshire, L 71-80
1/28 - Fisher, W 97-73
2/1 - @ Albany, L 77-90

 After starting out conference play 3-1 UMass Lowell has lost five straight league contests to fall to 3-6. Now tied for 6th in the league the Jahad Thomas player of the year talk is starting to die down. While his stats still remain top notch, how valuable are they when UML has lost by an average of 12.6 points during their five game skid?
Stats View: The offense is middle of the road sitting sixth in efficiency (108.4) in America East play, while their defense is dead last (114.6). They're second best in the league on two point field goal attempts (55.3%), and 5th shooting 37.5% from deep. Turnovers have been an issue as they're second to last in the league, giving up the ball 19.1% of their possessions.

My Take: The good news is the losses during their five game skid have come against the top teams in the league, the bad news is that they aren't one of the top teams. Right now it looks like UML is the best of the worst, either way they're still not eligible for postseason play until next year. At least you'll always have the top stat guy in conference play this season...



UMBC (15-7, 6-3) (KenPom: 173, RPI: 146)

Opponents
11/11 - Hood, W 92-61
11/14 - @ UMES, W 77-73
11/16 - Delaware St., W 90-68
11/19 - Kennesaw St., W 93-85
11/23 - @ Navy, L 66-78
11/30 - @ Duquesne, W 81-72
12/3 - Messiah, W 98-59
12/7 - @ Mount St. Mary's, W 78-70
12/10 - @ Richmond, L 75-78
12/17 - Towson, L 72-73
12/19 - The Citadel, W 120-111 (2OT)
12/23 - @ James Madison, W 62-61
12/28 - @ Va Tech, L 70-87
1/5 - Binghamton, W 85-71
1/8 - Maine, W 75-64
1/11 - @ Hartford, W 84-68
1/13 - @ Vermont, L 72-81
1/16 - Albany, L 50-77
1/22 - @ UMass-Lowell, W 102-86
1/25 - @ Stony Brook, L 73-83
1/28 - New Hampshire, W 105-103 (2OT)
2/1 - @ Binghamton, W 92-74
UMBC is sitting pretty in third place at 6-3. After opening up 3-0 they lost back to back contests to Vermont and Albany before righting the ship and winning three of their next four, including a double overtime thriller against New Hampshire. The schedule is set up for 8-3 with their next two contests coming against Maine and Hartford before they begin the Vermont and Albany stretch again.

Stats View: The offense runs at the fastest pace in the league (15.6 seconds per possession), which has led to them averaging a league high 82 points per game during conference play. KenPom has them as the third most efficient offense in the league at 112.5, while their defense sits fifth in efficiency at 107.8. The Retrievers do an excellent job taking care of the ball as they've turned it over on a league low 14.8% of their possessions.
My Take: if they take care of business to get to 8-3 in conference UMBC will set themselves up to make some real noise in conference play. The scoring duo of Jairus Lyles and Will Darley is a deadly combination and if the defense can remain middle of the pack they should have enough offense to carry them to victories. The real test will be over their last five games as they take on the league heavyweights, UML excluded. Everyone should relive what may have been the best game in college basketball this season...





Maine (5-19, 1-8) (KenPom: 335, RPI: 319)

Opponents
11/11 - @ Virginia Tech, L 67-80
11/13 - @ Longwood, W 80-58
11/19 - @ Boston University, L 78-102
11/20 - Northeastern, L 72-80 (neutral, semi-away)
11/21 - LIU Brooklyn, L, 66-71 (netural)
11/26 - Maine Presque isle, W 96-45
11/30 - CCSU, L 61-82
12/3 - Duke, L 55-94
12/7 - Holy Cross, W 55-53
12/10 - @ Dartmouth, W 73-68
12/18 - Quinnipiac, L 75-85
12/20 - @ Providence, L 59-79
12/22 - @ Brown, L 77-82
12/30 - @ Buffalo, L 70-79
1/2 - Columbia, L 73-98
1/5 - Vermont, L 77-90
1/8 - UMBC, L 64-75
1/11 - UMass-Lowell, W 73-71
1/14 -Stony Brook, W 74-54
1/16 - @ Hartford, L 44-54
1/19 - New Hampshire, L 63-74
1/22 - @ Albany, L 63-81
1/29 - Binghamton, L 54-65
2/1 - @ Vermont, L 53-74

It's been a tough go of it for Maine as they sit 1-8 in conference and haven't excelled on either side of the ball. Transfers and injuries killed the roster and it's showed through the first half of America East play. They get a pass for the season, and it remains to be seen if they can upset anyone during the second half of play. Their best shot at a win is when they host Hartford on February 6th.

Stats View: Their offensive efficiency of 91.6 is second to last in the league while their defensive efficiency of 110.6 ranks sixth. The Black Bears sit last in league play, hitting just 26.9% of their three point field goal attempts, while they're not much better inside as they're second to last hitting just 47.3% of their two point field goals.

My Take: It'll be an interesting battle with Hartford for who finishes last in the conference. In their first meeting Hartford beat the Black Bears by 10 in Hartford, Maine will look to return the favor when Hartford visits during the back end of the season. They're not running as much as they did last year (they're averaging 4.6 seconds more per possession so far in conference play), but a lot of that has to do with personnel. Bob Walsh does a nice job letting you inside both his mindset and his program...



New Hampshire (14-9, 5-4) (KenPom: 156, RPI: 168)



Opponents

11/11 - Lesley, W 85-60

11/14 @ Temple, W 57-52
11/17 - Abilene Christian, L 57-65
11/20 - @ West Virginia, L 41-100
11/23 - Detroit, W 86-70
11/27 - Winthrop, W 65-60
11/30 - @ Providence, L 62-76
12/3 - Holy Cross, W 56-53
12/6 - @ American, W 80-70
12/10 - @ Bryant, W 86-73
12/18 - @ Boston U, L 69-73
12/21 - Daniel Webster, W 89-26
12/31 - @ Dartmouth, L 62-63
1/2 - Wheelock, W 95-50
1/5 - Stony Brook, L 56-59
1/11 - @ Albany, W 75-67
1/14 - Binghamton, W 73-66
1/16 - Vermont, L 59-71
1/19 - @ Maine, W 74-63
1/22 - @ Hartford, W 81-56
1/25 - UMass-Lowell, W 80-71
1/28 - @ UMBC, L 103-105 (2OT)
2/1 - @ Stony Brook, L 61-64

New Hampshire has lost two straight and now sits just a game over .500 in conference play with a visiting Albany team looking for revenge in their next contest. The two losses have come by a combined five points, with one being the two point double overtime loss at UMBC. The Albany game looms large as they head to Vermont following it, with losses in both putting them under .500 in conference play.


Stats View: Their offensive efficiency sits fourth in conference play at 109.7 while their defensive efficiency sits third at 103.1. They're middle of the pack in most categories with turnover % (16.2%, 3rd) and two point % ( 53.8%, 3rd) being strengths and offensive rebounding % (24.0%, 8th) a weakness.



My Take: They're a three headed monster of Leissner, Smith and Dion offensively while Camara has contributed on the boards. They've scored more than most assumed they would going into the season, but their defense has slipped a bit and will need to step it up (it was solid in their last loss to Stony Brook) if they plan on making noise during the second half of conference play. By Friday morning February 10th we should know if the Wildcats have any shot of finishing in the top three of the conference. If it's not Albany, I'm all for the Texas boys dancing. Ya gotta respect a team willing to take any form of transportation to play a game...




Stony Brook (12-10, 7-2) (KenPom: 207, RPI: 179)



Opponents

11/11 - Columbia, L 66-73

11/20 - @ Boston College, L 75-82
11/22 - @ Maryland, L 63-77
11/25 - @ Towson, L 63-88
11/26 - Hamton, W 76-66 (neutral)
11/30 - Loyola MD, L 70-71
12/3 - Northeastern, W 77-75
12/6 - Lehigh, W 62-57
12/10 - Rutgers, L 66-71
12/13 - @ Hofstra, L 58-96
12/17 - @ St Francis PA, W 63-75
12/28 - NJIT, L 61-64
12/31 - @ Brown, W 92-89
1/5 - @ New Hampshire, W 59-56
1/8 - Albany, W 72-70
1/14 - @ Maine, W 74-54
1/16 - @ UMass-Lowell, W 86-75
1/19 - Hartford, W 80-64
1/22 - @ Binghamton, L 67-71
1/25 - UMBC, W 83-73
1/28 - Vermont, L 64-71
2/1 - New Hampshire, W 64-61

The record speaks for itself-- a program who lost its coach, greatest player in school history and another who may very well be top five in school history has answered almost every test during conference play so far this season. The head scratching loss is the one at Binghamton, but other than that they've handled their business plus some.


 Stats View: The Seawolves sport the fifth most efficient offense in conference at 109.0, but make up for it with the second most efficient defense at 99.9. They excel in free throw shooting (74.7%, 1st), block % (4.5%, 1st), ball security (turning it over just 14.9% of the time, good for second) and steal % (5.7%, 1st).



My Take: They just keep winning due in large part to the perimeter presence of Lucas Woodhouse and the interior presence of Tyrell Sturdivant. While plenty of players have contributed on both sides of the ball for the Seawolves it's Lucas Woodhouse who makes or break their season. Beyond his ability to set up teammates and get to the free throw line Woodhouse has been a steady asset from deep (62.2% on 37 attempts), while Bryan Sekunda (35.9% on 39 attempts) is the only other Seawolf shooting over 26% from downtown. I agree with this guy for who should be the front runner at the moment for America East POY...


Vermont (18-5, 8-0) (KenPom: 65, RPI: 68)



Opponents

11/12 - @ Quinnipiac, W 94-70

11/14- @ Providence, L 58-80
11/16 - @ Marist, W 76-72
11/19 - Lyndon St., W 79-20
11/21 - Wofford, W 60-59 (neutral)
11/22 - Hofstra, W 87-73 (neutral)
11/23 - Houston, L 71-72 (neutral)
11/26 - Yale, W 67-65
12/1 - South Carolina, L 50-68
12/7 - Dartmouth, W 73-58
12/10 - Northeastern, L 57-59
12/17 - Eastern Michigan, W 82-74
12/21 - @ Butler, 69-81
12/29 - @ Siena, W 76-60
1/2 - Harvard, W 82-71
1/5 - @ Maine, W 90-77
1/8 - Hartford, W 85-54
1/11 - @ Binghamton, W 67-50
1/13 - UMBC, W 81-72
1/16 - @ New Hampshire, W 71-59
1/19 - UMass-Lowell, W 81-67
1/25 - @ Albany, W 60-49
1/28 - @ Stony Brook, W 71-64
2/1 - Maine, W 74-53



The Catamounts have rolled through the league and have barely been tested along the way. They're so deep that injuries haven't affected their results, with various players picking up the slack so far throughout conference play. They're an experienced group even with their most versatile player, Anthony Lamb, playing his first season of college ball.


Stats View: Their offense ranks as the second most efficient (112.8) so far in conference play while their defense leads the way at 90.4. They lead the league shooting 42.3% from deep, and 57.8% from two point range. The only red flag is their free throw shooting which ranks 8th in the conference at 63%, and offensive rebounding % which ranks 7th in the league at 25.2%.



My Take: I knew they'd be good, I didn't think they'd be this much better than everyone else in the league. Their depth more than enables them to have an off night from several of their top players while still coming out victorious. The only question is if their poor free throw shooting will hurt them in a future close contest...so far they haven't had to worry about it. Here's some guy from some network talking about UVM...






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