Thursday, January 12, 2017

1/12 #AEHoops Roundup



*KenPom and RPI updated as of 3:00pm ET 1/12/17
** (Numbers in parenthesis are national rankings)
***DISCLAIMER: If you're not an Albany fan I probably like your team but hate your fanbase. Most of you annoy me, your players, however, are awesome... it actually bothers me how much I like most of them.***

Albany (9-9, 0-3) (KenPom: 182, RPI: 200)

Opponents
11/11 - @ Penn St., W 87-81
11/14 - @ Cincinnati, L 51-74
11/16 - Oneonta, W 97-56 (non d1)
11/19 - Grand Canyon, L 77-82 (neutral site)
11/20 - Brown, W 80-76 (neutral site)
11/27 - Siena, W 81-72
11/30 - Holy Cross, L 49-55
12/3 - @ Yale, L 55-59
12/7 - Marist, W 78-66
12/10 - Colgate, W 74-66
12/12 - @ Canisius, L 64-77
12/17 - St. Francis NY, W 87-60
12/20 - @ SMU, L 53-71
12/30 - @ Columbia, W 70-67
1/2 - Cornell, W 69-59
1/5 - @ UMass Lowell, L 79-85
1/8 - @ Stony Brook, L 70-72
1/11 - New Hampshire, L 67-75

The Great Danes have dug themselves a pretty big hole with three straight losses to start conference play. They'll need to figure things out quickly if they plan on getting any home games in the America East Playoffs.

Stats View: Through three conference games they're last in Defensive Efficiency, last in Two Point FG %, second to last in Three Point FG % and Effective FG %. On the bright side the offense is top 3 in the offensive categories that matter.

My take: Everyone is a coach when you're losing and Albany fans seem to have all the answers right now. If only Will Brown knew what he was doing this team would be 3-0 in conference play...that's it, someone get me my cell, I'm calling him right now and telling him why I can do his job better than he can!

Amen Fake Will Brown, Amen.

Binghamton (9-9, 0-3) (KenPom: 297, RPI: 296)

Opponents
11/11 - Cornell, W 68-62
11/14 - @ St. John’s, L 61-77
11/16 - CCSU, W 72-70
11/18 - @ VCU, 42-81
11/22 - Ave Maria, W 95-77
11/23 - @FGCU, L 53-69
11/24 - Long Beach St, W 72-64 (neutral)
11/27 - @ FIU, L 57-74
11/30 - Mansfield, W 91-71
12/3 - @ St. Francis PA, W 73-70
12/7 - @ Colgate, W 73-64
12/10 - Loyola MD, L 85-90 (OT)
12/17 - Delaware St., W 85-66
12/21 - @ Army, L 60-71
12/30 - Marywood, W 101-54
1/5 - @ UMBC, L 71-85
1/8 - UMass Lowell, L 75-79
1/11 - Vermont, L 50-67

 The Bearcats are 0-3 in conference, but they've faced the two teams tied at the top, and another with the current front runner for America East POY.

Stats View: Offensive Efficiency of 91.5 is second to last in the conference with most other offensive stats ranking in the bottom third of the league. The defense hasn't been bad, just not good enough to make up for the offense.

My Take:  The JC Show injury probably ended any chance they had of finishing in the top half of the league. Looking ahead they go to UNH and Albany, before getting Stony Brook at home...maybe they win one of those. Willie Rodriguez is still a cool dude, I want to see him on a winner before he goes.



Hartford (5-12, 0-2) (KenPom: 321, RPI: 315)

Opponents
11/11 - CCSU, L 60-75
11/15 - Niagara, W 82-78 (OT)
11/16 - Rider, L 68-84
11/18 - @ Drexel, L 73-87
11/23 - Appalachian St., L 61-70
11/25 - @ Rutgers, L 75-77
11/27 - @ North Texas, L 78-81
11/30 - LIU Brooklyn, L 68-75
12/3 - Sacred Heart, W 87-79 (OT)
12/7 - @ Quinnipiac, L 79-99
12/9 - @ Boston College, W 65-63
12/13 - Dartmouth, W 70-66
12/22 - Navy, W 63-54
12/28 - @ Davidson, L 75-105
1/2 - @ Yale, L 72-88
1/8 - @ Vermont, L 54-85
1/11 - UMBC, L 68-84

0-2 in conference but the two have been against Vermont and UMBC. Neither games were close, and it's most likely the same story/different year in Hartford.

 Stats View: 86.9 Offensive Efficiency is worst in the league, 120.4 Defensive Efficiency is second worst in the league.

My Take: If it ain't broke, don't fix it...if it's broke, you should probably fix it. Your offense shouldn't look like this.



UMASS Lowell (7-10, 2-1) (KenPom: 266, RPI: 281)

Opponents
11/11 - @ UMASS, L 76-90
11/14 - Wagner, W 87-76
11/16 - @ Indiana, L 78-100
11/19 - @ Fort Wayne, L 81-94
11/21 - @ Liberty, L 77-84
11/22 - Mississippi Valley St., W 76-71
11/26 - LIU Brooklyn, L 78-82 (OT)
11/29 - @ Marist, L 69-81
12/3 - NJIT, L 74-75
12/6 - @ Sacred Heart, L 82-91
12/18 - CCSU, W 86-69
12/21 - Boston University, W 77-75
12/23 - @ Loyola MD, L 60-69
12/29 - @ Cornell, W 96-98
1/5 - Albany, W 85-79
1/8 - Binghamton, W 79-75
1/11 - @ Maine, L 71-73

The win over Albany seemed good at the time, but right now it's not looking so special. The one loss was a Wes Myers special in Maine, in front of 700(?) people. 

Stats View: They're middle of the road in just about everything. Turnover % sticks out as they're 7th in the league with the ball and second to last when it comes to turning over their opponent.

My Take: Jahad Thomas is still probably the favorite for America East POY at this point. That could change quickly if UMBC continues to roll. They have a legitimate shot at 4-1 in conference before heading to Vermont as they get both Hartford and Stony Brook at home prior to the trip to Burlington. Here's a clip of someone other than Jahad Thomas doing something:



UMBC (12-4, 3-0) (KenPom: 178, RPI: 169)

Opponents
11/11 - Hood, W 92-61
11/14 - @ UMES, W 77-73
11/16 - Delaware St., W 90-68
11/19 - Kennesaw St., W 93-85
11/23 - @ Navy, L 66-78
11/30 - @ Duquesne, W 81-72
12/3 - Messiah, W 98-59
12/7 - @ Mount St. Mary's, W 78-70
12/10 - @ Richmond, L 75-78
12/17 - Towson, L 72-73
12/19 - The Citadel, W 120-111 (2OT)
12/23 - @ James Madison, W 62-61
12/28 - @ Va Tech, L 70-87
1/5 - Binghamton, W 85-71
1/8 - Maine, W 75-64
1/11 - @ Hartford, W 84-68

They're 3-0 in conference which is impressive, until you realize the wins are over Binghamton, Maine and Hartford with two of the three matchups at home. Regardless of who they've played and where they've played them, 3-0 to start a conference season with a first year head coach is impressive.

Stats View: Their Offensive Efficiency of 113.2 is second in the league, just as their Defensive Efficiency of 94.7 is second best. They're last in the league at getting to the free throw line, but have the highest FT percentage at 81.8%.

My Take: They're fun to watch and have one of the leagues most dynamic players in Jairus Lyles, and deadly outside shooter in Joe Sherburne. There's talent throughout this roster when you factor in Will Darley, Rodney Elliott and Nolan Gerrity. As I said up above, the three previous wins were cupcakes, we'll find out how real they are over their next three games where they visit Vermont and UMass Lowell with an Albany visit sandwiched in-between.


Maine (5-13, 1-2) (KenPom: 327, RPI: 283)

Opponents
11/11 - @ Virginia Tech, L 67-80
11/13 - @ Longwood, W 80-58
11/19 - @ Boston University, L 78-102
11/20 - Northeastern, L 72-80 (neutral, semi-away)
11/21 - LIU Brooklyn, L, 66-71 (netural)
11/26 - Maine Presque isle, W 96-45
11/30 - CCSU, L 61-82
12/3 - Duke, L 55-94
12/7 - Holy Cross, W 55-53
12/10 - @ Dartmouth, W 73-68
12/18 - Quinnipiac, L 75-85
12/20 - @ Providence, L 59-79
12/22 - @ Brown, L 77-82
12/30 - @ Buffalo, L 70-79
1/2 - Columbia, L 73-98
1/5 - Vermont, L 77-90
1/8 - UMBC, L 64-75
1/11 - UMass-Lowell, W 73-71

Nice win over UMass Lowell in their last outing, even if many people didn't see the actual game, there was a nice shout out from Jeff Goodman while poking fun at the world's worst tweeter in Jon Rothstein.


Stats View: They're middle of the pack in most categories with an Offensive Efficiency of 101.8 (6th) and a Defensive Efficiency of 112.3 (7th). They're worst in the league in defensive rebounding giving up an offensive rebound to their opponents on 30.2% of their opportunities.

My Take: Wesley Myers has become that dude up in Orono as he's averaging 29.7 points and 5.7 rebounds through three conference games, including the game winner against UMass Lowell for the Black Bears only conference win to date. Even if they don't end up making much noise in conference play, they'll be fun to watch.


New Hampshire (10-6, 1-1) (KenPom: 156, RPI: 179)

Opponents
11/11 - Lesley, W 85-60
11/14 @ Temple, W 57-52
11/17 - Abilene Christian, L 57-65
11/20 - @ West Virginia, L 41-100
11/23 - Detroit, W 86-70
11/27 - Winthrop, W 65-60
11/30 - @ Providence, L 62-76
12/3 - Holy Cross, W 56-53
12/6 - @ American, W 80-70
12/10 - @ Bryant, W 86-73
12/18 - @ Boston U, L 69-73
12/21 - Daniel Webster, W 89-26
12/31 - @ Dartmouth, L 62-63
1/2 - Wheelock, W 95-50
1/5 - Stony Brook, L 56-59
1/11 - @ Albany, W 75-67

 The loss in the conference opener seemed worse than it was at the time due to low expectations for Stony Brook this conference season. The road win against Albany, combined with Stony Brook's 2-0 start has New Hampshire looking much better as of today. 

Stats View: 5th best Offensive Efficiency and 4th Best Defensive Efficiency in conference through two games...about as middle of the road as you can get. Their currently last in Offensive Rebounding %, but second best at keeping their opponents off the offensive glass.

My Take: Depth may be the issue, but there's plenty of talent in the starting pieces. Their usual story is great defense, with a question mark on the offensive end. They lit Albany up from deep, which really means nothing at this point. They get Vermont at home between games against Binghamton and Maine, should be able to take two out of the next three to sit at 3-2 in conference play. Tanner Leissner is currently averaging 20.5 points and 9.5 rebounds for them through two conference games...the Texas boys are still in play to win the conference.



Stony Brook (7-8, 2-0) (KenPom: 241, RPI: 201)

Opponents
11/11 - Columbia, L 66-73
11/20 - @ Boston College, L 75-82
11/22 - @ Maryland, L 63-77
11/25 - @ Towson, L 63-88
11/26 - Hamton, W 76-66 (neutral)
11/30 - Loyola MD, L 70-71
12/3 - Northeastern, W 77-75
12/6 - Lehigh, W 62-57
12/10 - Rutgers, L 66-71
12/13 - @ Hofstra, L 58-96
12/17 - @ St Francis PA, W 63-75
12/28 - NJIT, L 61-64
12/31 - @ Brown, W 92-89
1/5 - @ New Hampshire, W 59-56
1/8 - Albany, W 72-70

They went on the road and defeated New Hampshire to open up conference play before returning home and going on a 21-0 run over the final 5:55 to defeat Albany 72-70. It's a flawed team, with some very nice pieces...and 2-0 is 2-0.

Stats View: They've excelled in ball security, only coughing it up on 14.7% of their possessions which is a league best in conference play. On the defensive side they've forced their opponents to turn it over a league best 24% of the time. They still haven't found it from deep, hitting a league worst 30% from deep.

My Take: They're flawed, as you can tell from some of their out of conference blow outs. You don't go down to Albany by 21 points right now without having some major issues. That being said, they've been resilient with Tyrell Sturdivant taking over the second half in their victory at New Hampshire and their improbable (which seemed impossible at the time) come back win over Albany at home. The Albany/Stony Brook series needs to always be scheduled late in the season, with Senior night the return game for the home team.


Vermont (13-5, 3-0) (KenPom: 75, RPI: 86)

Opponents
11/12 - @ Quinnipiac, W 94-70
11/14- @ Providence, L 58-80
11/16 - @ Marist, W 76-72
11/19 - Lyndon St., W 79-20
11/21 - Wofford, W 60-59 (neutral)
11/22 - Hofstra, W 87-73 (neutral)
11/23 - Houston, L 71-72 (neutral)
11/26 - Yale, W 67-65
12/1 - South Carolina, L 50-68
12/7 - Dartmouth, W 73-58
12/10 - Northeastern, L 57-59
12/17 - Eastern Michigan, W 82-74
12/21 - @ Butler, 69-81
12/29 - @ Siena, W 76-60
1/2 - Harvard, W 82-71
1/5 - @ Maine, W 90-77
1/8 - Hartford, W 85-54
1/11 - @ Binghamton, W 67-50

The favorites heading into the season, remain the favorites three games into conference play. They own three dominant wins to start America East action, with two of the three taking place on the road. They'll be tested over their next five games, where we'll quickly find out if they are head and shoulders above the rest of the league.

Stats View: Through three games they own the leagues most efficient offense and most efficient defense. The only thing they've done poorly is shoot free throws where they sit at a league worst 54.5% from the charity stripe. Right now they have 4 players scoring at least 11.5 ppg and 9 players scoring at least 5.3 ppg.

My Take: They're the team to beat until someone takes them down. With contributions from so many roster spots it'll be tough for a Catamount to win America East POY...even if they do go undefeated in conference play. They've lost twice in the title game (including last year) since their last dance in 2012, it's time to push through. It really doesn't matter what they do, because in the end they will never be...


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