Wednesday, January 31, 2018

#AEHoops Halfway There Roundup



*Teams in order of KenPom Rankings
(KenPom, W-L in conference)

Vermont (63) 17-5 (7-0)


Vermont now has a two game lead in the America East and has beaten their conference opponents by an average of 13.29 points, with all of their victories by double-digits. Three things have impressed me the most so far this conference season when it comes to Vermont:

1. They rarely take possessions off and never take a full game off. Coming off of an America East Championship and an undefeated 2016-17 conference season, John Becker has had his players ready to go night in and night out.

2. They lost their best player just before conference play began and it's been a full team effort to replace him. Drew Urquhart is playing 14.5 more minutes per game so far in conference compared to last season. In this extra time he's taken 3.3 more field goals per game while hitting 9.3% more of them which has upped his scoring average from 3.5 ppg to 10.6 ppg. Urquhart is also pulling in 3.2 more rebounds per game, all while averaging just 0.8 more fouls per game. Trae Bell-Haynes has increased his scoring, although his assists are down and his turnovers are up. The important part has been his ability to take over offensively when UVM needs it, a role Lamb would've played this year. Other than those two, all of the role players have stayed within themselves and increased their production so far in conference.

3. Ernie Duncan has become a three level scorer (a term I dislike, but it applies). Duncan can no longer be ran off the three point line and forgot about, he's hurt teams inside the arc big time so far in conference play. Duncan is attempting 1.9 more two point field goals per game, while upping his shooting percentage from that range 20.7% from conference play last year. He's been able to get into the teeth of the defense with the ability to both finish and distribute to the open man.

Albany (140) 12-3 (5-4)


The only way to describe Albany at this point is inconsistent. Are they the team that beat second place UMBC by 44? Are they the team that trailed to Hartford by 20 at home and trailed at Binghamton by 18 before losing by 13? Are they the team that went toe to toe at Vermont for 30 minutes? I'm not even sure they know as of this writing. Their defense has been much better of late, their offense is still trying to find itself. Three things to watch for over the second half of conference play for them:

1. Has David Nichols finally turned a corner? After coach Will Brown benched Nichols for much of Albany's first half at Stony Brook he turned in his best 20 minutes of basketball for the Great Danes in conference play. Entering the Stony Brook game Nichols had an offensive win share of 0 in conference play, it's now up to 0.1. The star Albany guard finished conference play last season with an offensive win share of 1.5. Nichols is shooting 48.8% from behind the arc in conference play so far, up from 39.1% last season. It's been his inability to finish at the rim and on two point jumpers that have hurt his overall offensive game, as his two point field goal percentage is down from 50% last year to 32.8% so far this year in conference. Albany goes as Nichols goes, and they aren't going anywhere without consistent play from their lead guard.

2. Can Albany find consistent production off of the bench? As of this writing Albany is 350th (out of 351 teams) in the nation in bench minutes per KenPom. The two players most likely to up their production based on ability are Ahmad Clark and Alex Foster. Clark has the ability to hit the three and take his defender off of the dribble both in the half court and in transition. Ahmad has forced the action a bit too much, mainly because he's been unable to finish once getting to the hoop. So far he's shooting 31.6% from two point range in conference and 35.1% at the rim on the season. Anything less than 50% at the rim isn't good, with anything below 45% unacceptable for a guard. Alex Foster has had his own issues at times. While he looks more comfortable both on defense and running the Albany offense he's only hit 38.9% of his two point field goals so far in conference play, not what you want from a big taking most of his attempts right at the rim with his size and athleticism.

3. Can Albany win ugly? Even if the offense starts to completely click again as it did during portions of their OOC slate there will be a game where shots aren't dropping. The come from behind road win at Stony Brook was a step in the right direction as Albany managed to come back from a 12 point deficit late in the first half while only shooting 36% for the game and 4-13 (30.8%) from deep. If Albany really plans on challenging Vermont they'll have to find a way to consistently limit mistakes in grind it out games. Recent contests versus Vermont have shown us that the game will be ugly and the team who makes the least amount of mistakes will win the contest.

UMBC (201) 15-8 (6-2)


UMBC is sitting pretty through the first half of conference play. Their two losses came at Vermont and at Albany, while they'll get both teams at home in the second half of America East action. If we ignore their "everything that can go wrong will go wrong" outing at Albany the Retrievers offense has been good, while their defense has been surprisingly decent. Three things to watch for during the second half:

1. Can a healthier Jairus Lyles continue to thrive? Lyles numbers are up across the board and he's been able to score 4.6 more ppg in conference while shooting 8.8% better from two and 8.5% better from deep so far in conference. The only question for Lyles at this point is if he'll be able to carry the UMBC offense versus Vermont or Albany. At Vermont Lyles only scored 8 points, while at Albany he only went for 14...which brings us to our next question.

2. Will someone else step up offensively to help Lyles during UMBC's second half? Arkel Lamar is the most likely candidate, but he's currently dealing with a high ankle sprain and has missed three out of UMBC's last four games. When he comes back Lamar needs to abandon the two point jumper and instead either bomb from three (where he's hit 45.5% of his shots this season) or use his big body to get to the rim/interior. Joe Sherburne has shown flashes in conference play and has hit 45.9% of his 37 three point attempts thus far along with KJ Maura who has shot 45.5% on 33 attempts. UMBC hasn't gotten much production from their interior so any increased production there would be a bonus.

3. Can UMBC hold onto the second seed? This most likely comes down to being able to defeat either Vermont or Albany at home. As I previously mentioned they get both on their new home floor during the back end of conference action. The Retrievers can either take the gamble on their shots dropping enough to to outscore either opponent, or find a way to rebound just enough to steal one of the two games. Through the first half of conference play they're last in offensive rebounding and haven't done a good job keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass themselves. With a road tilt at a strong rebounding New Hampshire team on tap during the second half, these two home games become all the more important.

Stony Brook (224) 8-14 (3-5)


Stony Brook is about where you'd think they'd be halfway through conference play. They've had some issues closing games (home vs Albany, at New Hampshire, at UMass Lowell) during the first half of conference action and could easily be 5-3. The good news for the Seawolves is that they start the back end with three straight home games before heading to Maine on February 11th. If Stony Brook looks to salvage their season it starts with a visit from UMBC followed by must wins when Hartford and UMass Lowell come to town. Three things to watch for over the second half of conference play:

1. Can Akwasi Yeboah stay out of foul trouble and become the offensive leader this team desperately needs? Yeboah hits the halfway mark averaging 2.3 fouls per game in Stony Brook's victories, but 4 fouls per game in their losses. He has averaged 4.6 fouls in Stony Brook's three toughest games to date (two vs Albany, one vs Vermont) and only averaged 17.3 minutes in those contests. Akwasi has averaged 20 points in Stony Brook's three wins, but just 9.2 points in their losses. Even more concerning is the fact that he's averaged just 5.75 points in losses verse teams higher than Stony Brook in the standings. Overall Yeboah has been efficient from the floor, hitting 54.5% of his twos and 33.3% of his threes in conference play, but Stony Brook will need him to lead against top competition if they hope to rise in the standings.

2. This is a personal challenge to a player I'm a big fan of. Can Tyrell Sturdivant start to consistently rebound and score inside? Stony Brook has been a perimeter oriented team this year, but when those shots aren't falling someone needs to step up inside. Sturdivant has hit 59.3% of his two point shots so far in conference play, but he's only attempting 3.4 of them per contest. I get the Seawolves offense doesn't run through the post, but Sturdivant has to find a way to get more touches down low whether it's through offensive rebounding or sealing off his man and demanding the ball.

3. Will a lead guard step up for the Seawolves? So far it's been a combination of Jaron Cornish, Jordan McKenzie with some UC Ireogbu mixed in. You knew coming into this season point guard would be an issue for Stony Brook with the departure of Lucas Woodhouse, but without increased production from Jaron Cornish or Jordan McKenzie over the back half of conference play Stony Brook will have a tough time getting to where they want to be in the standings.

New Hampshire (244) 9-13 (5-3)


5-3 at the halfway point isn't bad for New Hampshire, although after beating a visiting Albany squad they'd rather be 6-2 without their road loss to Maine. The offense has been more of a struggle than the defense, which was expected, although it's been a struggle for an unlikely reason. The Wildcats haven't shot the ball horribly from deep, but through eight conference games they're currently last in the conference in two point field goal percentage. A lot of that has to do with the first of our three things to watch for:

1. Can Tanner Leissner find a way to be a bit more efficient from the field? Now this isn't saying Tanner Leissner should shoulder any blame, in fact he's had a very nice conference season so far for New Hampshire, but Leissner has taken nearly twice as many two point field goals and overall field goals than the next closest Wildcat. At this point it's obvious their offense will falter or thrive through him...which brings us to our next question.

2. Can Iba Camara or JaCoby Armstrong average double figures over the final eight conference games? Camara has seen his offensive production drop in conference play (6.9 ppg), although he's still hitting the glass hard (12 rpg and leading the nation in defensive rebound percentage). Armstrong hasn't been able to get it going offensively in conference play and has only reached double figures once with a 10 point outing at undersized UMass Lowell. Factor in a couple of two point efforts for Armstrong over the first half of America East play and and you can see why he's only averaged 5.6 points in conference so far.

3. Can New Hampshire find reliable perimeter play? John Ogwuche has more than held his own averaging 10.8 points on 47.5% from the field and 46.4% from deep. The other three options of Reed, Jordan and Stewart are all shooting 37% or less from the field so far in conference play. These guards either need to find a way to break down the defense and dish to their big men, or find a way to consistently hit more perimeter shots for New Hampshire to hold on for a top three finish in the America East.

Hartford (245) 12-10 (5-3)


Other than undefeated Vermont, Hartford has been the darlings of the America East. They ended conference play winning four out of five including a win at Big Ten opponent Rutgers, before winning at Albany on their way to starting conference action 3-1. They're just 2-2 in their past four conference games, but they've won the games they were supposed to (at Maine, at UML) and lost the tough ones (at UMBC, vs UVM). Expectations were low for Hartford coming into this season and they've more than exceeded them over the first half of conference play. Let's get to their three questions:

1. Can this offense continue to thrive? So far Hartford is scoring 73.3 points per game (second to Vermont), hitting 40.1% of their threes (second to Vermont) and 48.8% of their field goals (you guessed it, second to Vermont). Last year Hartford averaged 61.8 points per game, shot a league low 29.9% from deep and a league low 37.5% from the field, so what's changed? Two main things-- they're more balanced scoring the ball and they have been able to work the ball inside effectively. Hartford has four players averaging double figures where in conference last year they only had two.

2. Can the trio of John Carroll, Hassan Attia and George Blagojevic continue to dominate the interior for Hartford? My money is on yes, maybe not as efficiently as they did in the first half of conference play, but they've proven they're here to stay. Combined they're averaging 18.1 two point field goal attempts per game and hitting 59.3% of them. Carroll who gets to the line most often on the team is also hitting 85.2% of his free throw's for the Hawks which currently sit at second in the America East with 75.7% made in conference.

3. So, are they for real? We'll find out pretty quickly as they jump into their second half at Stony Brook and at New Hampshire before hosting Albany. The New Jersey guard's of Jason Dunne and JR Lynch have performed well so far. The only red flag on offense is Dunne from deep, as he's taking the most per game (7.6) for Hartford and is only hitting 27.9% so far in conference. If Dunne is able to get closer to his 36.5% from last season and Travis Weatherington is able to continue to play well there is no reason the Hawks can't make noise over their final eight games and into the America East Playoffs.

Binghamton (222) 10-13 (1-7)


To say it's been a rocky first half of conference play for Binghamton would be an understatement. The Bearcats have dug themselves a hole that may be impossible to get out of. As of today they sit in last place in the America East and this year the ninth place team misses the conference playoff's. They've already lost to both Maine and UMass Lowell on their home floor (the two team's they're chasing for eighth), still have to face Vermont twice in the second half of America East play and have to visit Albany to finish their season. Let's get to the questions:

1. Can leading scorer J.C. Show (13.1 ppg) and Fard Muhammad (5.8 ppg) find their stroke? So far in conference play Show has shot 31.7% on 7.5 attempts per game from deep and 32.6% on 5.4 attempts from two point range. In out of conference Show shot 47.4% from two point range on 78 attempts and 37.5% on 104 attempts from three point range. The Binghamton offense desperately needs Show closer to his OOC numbers if they plan on climbing out of the America East basement during the back half of conference play. The only other Bearcat averaging more than 2 three point attempts per game is Muhammad (4.5) and he's only hit 27.8% of them so far, not good for a team shooting a league worst 29.9% from deep.

2. Will Thomas Bruce take the next step? Over Binghamton's four game losing streak Bruce (8.5 ppg) has reached double digit point totals just once and double digit rebound totals (6.9 rpg) just once. The Bearcats need Bruce to not only stay out of foul trouble, but give consistent effort every night to live up to his vast potential. Defensive rebounds can be trickier with Binghamton in a zone most of the time, but Bruce should be doing serious work on the offensive boards from here on out.

3. Can a team full of upperclassmen find a way to save their season? Most of these guys will have one more shot at it next season, but this is the final go-round for Willie Rodriguez. It's pretty simple at this point-- Do you want to waste a year of your college eligibility and the back end of your career or are you willing to fight from here on out?

UMass Lowell (321) 8-13 (2-6)


Back to back wins after an 0-5 start to conference play has UMass Lowell out of the America East basement at the half way point. They start off the back half of conference play with a huge game at Maine as both are currently tied for 8th place in the conference at 2-6. This is the River Hawks first year post season eligible and the final year of eligibility for star Jahad Thomas. If UML plans on participating in the postseason they'll have to answer these three questions:

1. Can they sell out on defense and get stops? They're undersized, every opponent who scouts them licks their chops. They're hurting themselves on the perimeter by helping on the interior. It's time to decide whether they're going to defend the three ball or defend the paint with every possible body. UML enters the halfway mark last in defensive efficiency, second to last in opponents two point field goal percentage and second to last in opponents three point field goal percentage. It's time to make the choice, either give up the three ball or give up the two ball, but they can't continue to give up both.

2. Can they get more looks for Ryan Jones from deep? The UML offense has been middle of the pack in conference, but that does nothing for you when your defense has been as bad as it's been. Jones got seven attempts from deep in the River Hawks' last contest, but so far in conference play he's only averaging 3.3 per game. Matt Harris is currently taking 6.4 per game for them and has hit on 10.9% less of them than Jones. Harris has been a beast from two point range (70.6%), but Jones is the guy you need getting off from deep.

3. Can they survive a three game road stretch to start the back half? UMass Lowell visits Maine, Stony Brook and Vermont before returning home for three contests against Albany, Binghamton and Maine. The two Maine contests become must wins unless they plan on stealing a game from Albany or Vermont. This stretch will determine whether they are participating in the postseason or watching for another year.

Maine (335) 5-18 (2-6)

Maine did themselves a huge favor when they defeated New Hampshire during the first half of conference play. Wins like that go a long way determining whether you're participating in the America East Playoffs or watching them from home. They'll get both UMass Lowell (who they're tied with) and Binghamton (who is currently in last place) to start off the back half of conference play; a quick two game stretch that should determine whether they're participating in the postseason or not. Answer these three questions and they'll have exceeded everyone's expectations this season:

1. Will Ilker Er step up on offense? Aaron Calixte needs a wingman badly and Er can be that guy off of the bench. Er's two point shooting is up 19.1% from conference play last season to this year, but his three point shooting is down 18.3%. Er isn't the only Maine player struggling from deep, Isaiah White (4.8 3PA) who has taken the second most attempts from deep for Maine has only hit on 28.9% of them.

2. Can Maine protect home court? The trip to Orono isn't easy for most programs in the America East. After a long bus ride most teams find themselves playing in front of a sparse crowd, Maine needs to take full advantage of this. As previously mentioned they'll get the two most important home games right off the bat (UML, Bing), but if they can steal their home contest vs Stony Brook (maybe) or their season ender vs Vermont (nah) then they'll be sitting pretty after the final eight conference games.

3. Can they stop turning the ball over? Maine enters the halfway point turning the ball over a conference worst 22.4% of their possessions. Nearly 1/4 of their possessions they're not even getting a shot at the rim and giving their opponent an opportunity to score in transition. Ball security has to be a focal point over their final eight regular season games.

Conference Team Stat Leaders

PPG: Vermont 74.1
OPPG: Vermont 59.4
FG%: Vermont 50.4%
DFG%: New Hampshire 40.8%
3FG%: Vermont 42.6%
FT%: Albany 77.6%
RPG: New Hampshire 39.8
TO Margin: UMBC +2.75
Assist/Turnover: UMBC +1.20
BPG: Albany 4.11
APG: Hartford 15.75
SPG: UMBC 8.63

Conference Individual Stat Leaders

PPG: Jairus Lyles 21.5
RPG: Iba Camara 12.0
FG%: Aaron Calixte 59.8%
3FG%: Travis Weatherington 66.7%
FT%: J.C. Show 95.2%
APG: J.R. Lynch 5.3
Ast/Tov: KJ Maura 2.6
BPG: Thomas Bruce 1.9
SPG: KJ Maura 2.5
MPG: Jahad Thomas 38.9

Current Standings

1. Vermont 7-0
2. UMBC 6-2
3. Hartford 5-3
4. New Hampshire 5-3
5. Albany 5-4
6. Stony Brook 3-5
7. UMass Lowell 2-6
8. Maine 2-6
9. Binghamton 1-7

Current AE 1st Team

Ernie Duncan
Trae Bell Haynes
Jairus Lyles
J.R. Lynch
Tanner Leissner

Current AE 2nd Team

Payton Henson
John Carroll
Joe Cremo
Travis Charles
Jahad Thomas

Current AE 3rd Team

Iba Camara
Drew Urquhart
Aaron Calixte
David Nichols
Akwasi Yeboah

Current POY

Trae Bell-Haynes/Ernie Duncan

Current DPOY

Devonte Campbell

Current COY

John Becker



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