(1) North Carolina vs (2) Villanova
Spread: UNC -2
KenPom: Nova -1
North Carolina
Who They Beat: FGCU (161), Providence (46), Indiana (15), Notre Dame (36), Syracuse (24)
Avg Margin of Victory: 16.2
Villanova
Who They Beat: UNC Asheville (122), Iowa (24), Miami (14), Kansas (4), Oklahoma (8)
Avg Margin of Victory: 24.2
What To Watch
The final brings us the KenPom number one in Villanova vs the Kenpom number 2 in North Carolina. Villanova dominated Oklahoma in the semifinals holding them to 51 points on 39% shooting from 2 and 22 percent shooting from 3.
North Carolina comes off a win over Syracuse in which they shot 64% from 2 and 23% from deep. The Tar Heels had continued to shoot the ball well from the line, while being hit or miss from deep.
It's unlikely Villanova will be able to contain North Carolina down low.
To win they'll have to continue their hot shooting from deep, while holding the Tar Heels under 20% from three. North Carolina continues to control the offensive glass, something Villanova has defended just above average this season.
While the stats disagree, the eye test tells me this will be a game that Villanova can only win by playing their A game while North Carolina will have to be somewhere around a C.
Advantage: Joel Berry
SG: Marcus Paige vs Ryan Arcidiacono - Arcidiacono seems to be getting the pub and the love, while throughout most of his career at North Carolina Marcus Paige was the lead man. This season's team is complete to the point that Paige is no longer heavily leaned on as Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry have taken their games to new levels. Both sport an offensive rating of 119.5 while Arcidiacono has shot 38.9% from deep to Paige's 34.8%. Arcidiacono takes assists with a rate of 24.5 to Paige's 18.1, while Paige takes turnovers at 12.3 to Arcidiacono's 14. Arcidiacono comes in as the hotter player with an offensive rating of 152.3 over his last 3 games to Paige's 149.6. Villanova needs Arcidiacono to be at his best to have any shot to win, UNC can survive with an average game from Paige. If both play at their top level, Villanova doesn't stand a chance.
Advantage: Push
SF: Justin Jackson vs Josh Hart - Jackson comes in with an offensive rating of 119.4, while Hart is right there at 118. Jackson leads assist rate with a 16.5 to Hart's 12.7. Jackson is top 100 in the country, only turning the ball over 10.3 percent of the time, to Hart's 13.2 percent. Hart out-rebound's Jackson 17%-7.9% on the defensive end (mostly do to the dominance of UNC's bigs) Hart hits 35.8% of his threes while Jackson has struggled, coming in at a 27.6% clip. Jackson has the length while Hart has the athleticism.
Advantage: slight edge, Justin Jackson
PF: Brice Johnson vs Kris Jenkins - Brice finished as the KenPom POY, that's all you need to know about the stats. Jenkins has an offensive rating of 121.3 while Brice comes in at 126.8. Rebounding is where Brice separates, pulling down 12% on the offensive end and 28.3% on the defensive end to Jenkins' 2.3% and 13.2%. While Jenkins is much smaller, he does his damage from deep...hitting 38.4% of his shots from distance so far this season.
Advantage: Brice Johnson
C: Kennedy Meeks vs Daniel Ochefu - Ochefu comes in with the higher offensive rating, 122 to Meeks' 114.5. Ochefu leads defensive rebounding (25.9%-18.4%), while Meeks leads offensive rebounding (12.9%-11.5%). Ochefu blocks 7.7% of the attempts that comes his way, while Meeks sits at 5.5%.
Advantage: Daniel Ochefu
Bench:
UNC: Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, Isaiah Hicks, Joel James
Villanova: Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges, Darryl Reynolds
I won't even go through the stats, UNC has an unbelievable advantage here. Hicks should be starting for North Carolina (probably would be if not for some foul troubles), and would start for every other team in the country. Pinson, Britt and James could all start for a majority of tournament teams. Villanova has some nice pieces in Booth and Bridges, they just don't have the depth of UNC (no one in the country does)
Coach: Roy Williams vs Jay Wright - Roy Williams already has two titles under his belt and swears he know his team better than anyone else in the country who's questioned some of his moves (he does). Jay Wright has done more with less at Villanova, having built the program into a perennial power house. I love what Roy has done at UNC, but the edge will always go to the guy who's able to do more with less.
Advantage: Jay Wright
Prediction: UNC wins big (12+). 9/10 times this UNC team would take down this Villanova team...only question for Villanova tonight is... can this be that 1 time they win?
North Carolina comes off a win over Syracuse in which they shot 64% from 2 and 23% from deep. The Tar Heels had continued to shoot the ball well from the line, while being hit or miss from deep.
It's unlikely Villanova will be able to contain North Carolina down low.
To win they'll have to continue their hot shooting from deep, while holding the Tar Heels under 20% from three. North Carolina continues to control the offensive glass, something Villanova has defended just above average this season.
While the stats disagree, the eye test tells me this will be a game that Villanova can only win by playing their A game while North Carolina will have to be somewhere around a C.
Position By Position (Starters)
PG: Joel Berry vs Jalen Brunson - Berry sports an offensive rating of 121.7 with an assist rate of 19.4, 3P% of 36.8, and FT% of 86.5%. Brunson comes in at 108, 19.7, 38.1, 77.9. While the numbers are close, Brunson is still young and the eye test puts Berry way ahead. Neither lead their team all of the time, as both Paige and Arcidiacono take over lead guard duties throughout games.Advantage: Joel Berry
SG: Marcus Paige vs Ryan Arcidiacono - Arcidiacono seems to be getting the pub and the love, while throughout most of his career at North Carolina Marcus Paige was the lead man. This season's team is complete to the point that Paige is no longer heavily leaned on as Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry have taken their games to new levels. Both sport an offensive rating of 119.5 while Arcidiacono has shot 38.9% from deep to Paige's 34.8%. Arcidiacono takes assists with a rate of 24.5 to Paige's 18.1, while Paige takes turnovers at 12.3 to Arcidiacono's 14. Arcidiacono comes in as the hotter player with an offensive rating of 152.3 over his last 3 games to Paige's 149.6. Villanova needs Arcidiacono to be at his best to have any shot to win, UNC can survive with an average game from Paige. If both play at their top level, Villanova doesn't stand a chance.
Advantage: Push
SF: Justin Jackson vs Josh Hart - Jackson comes in with an offensive rating of 119.4, while Hart is right there at 118. Jackson leads assist rate with a 16.5 to Hart's 12.7. Jackson is top 100 in the country, only turning the ball over 10.3 percent of the time, to Hart's 13.2 percent. Hart out-rebound's Jackson 17%-7.9% on the defensive end (mostly do to the dominance of UNC's bigs) Hart hits 35.8% of his threes while Jackson has struggled, coming in at a 27.6% clip. Jackson has the length while Hart has the athleticism.
Advantage: slight edge, Justin Jackson
PF: Brice Johnson vs Kris Jenkins - Brice finished as the KenPom POY, that's all you need to know about the stats. Jenkins has an offensive rating of 121.3 while Brice comes in at 126.8. Rebounding is where Brice separates, pulling down 12% on the offensive end and 28.3% on the defensive end to Jenkins' 2.3% and 13.2%. While Jenkins is much smaller, he does his damage from deep...hitting 38.4% of his shots from distance so far this season.
Advantage: Brice Johnson
C: Kennedy Meeks vs Daniel Ochefu - Ochefu comes in with the higher offensive rating, 122 to Meeks' 114.5. Ochefu leads defensive rebounding (25.9%-18.4%), while Meeks leads offensive rebounding (12.9%-11.5%). Ochefu blocks 7.7% of the attempts that comes his way, while Meeks sits at 5.5%.
Advantage: Daniel Ochefu
Bench:
UNC: Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, Isaiah Hicks, Joel James
Villanova: Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges, Darryl Reynolds
I won't even go through the stats, UNC has an unbelievable advantage here. Hicks should be starting for North Carolina (probably would be if not for some foul troubles), and would start for every other team in the country. Pinson, Britt and James could all start for a majority of tournament teams. Villanova has some nice pieces in Booth and Bridges, they just don't have the depth of UNC (no one in the country does)
Coach: Roy Williams vs Jay Wright - Roy Williams already has two titles under his belt and swears he know his team better than anyone else in the country who's questioned some of his moves (he does). Jay Wright has done more with less at Villanova, having built the program into a perennial power house. I love what Roy has done at UNC, but the edge will always go to the guy who's able to do more with less.
Advantage: Jay Wright
Prediction: UNC wins big (12+). 9/10 times this UNC team would take down this Villanova team...only question for Villanova tonight is... can this be that 1 time they win?
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