I'm not a fan of pregame nonsense, but considering this Sunday has become rather important to both Monmouth and Rutgers (for polar opposite reasons) I figured I'd give it some love.
National Ranks
Monmouth
- RPI- 11
- Ken Pom- 55
- FG%- 252
- 2FG%- 283
- 3FG%- 62
- FT%- 2
- OFFPPP- 106
- DEFPPP- 96
- TO/PG- 59
- AST/PG- 285
- AST/TO- 194
- OPP3FG%- 36
- Reb/PG- 154
- Reb %- 339
- BPG- 91
- Fouls/PG- 340
- Opp2FG%- 99
Rutgers
- RPI- 228
- Ken Pom- 258
- FG%- 224
- 3FG%- 302
- FT%- 245
- OFFPPP- 311
- DEFPPP- 164
- OPP3FG%- 177
- TO/PG- 329
- Ast/PG- 290
- AST/TO- 319
- OPPFG%- 177
- REB/PG- 206
- REB%- 276
- BPG- 91
So what does all this gibberish mean? Pretty much Monmouth has lived and died from deep. Not only have they shot well from three (62nd), but they've defended the three ball well (36th). Monmouth scores 57% of their points from either the free throw line or from deep. Once fouled, they've been hitting an outstanding 82% (2nd) of their free throws.
Easier said than done, but Rutgers must find a way to pressure the deep shooters while not fouling as they attempt to blow by.
Rutgers hasn't excelled in any areas statistically thus far this season. They're 177th nationally in opponent field goal percentage, and opponent three point field goal percentage. That's about as good as it gets when looking at their season stats as a team.
Monmouth does an excellent job defending the three ball (36th), and Rutgers has shot poorly from deep (302nd)
While Rutgers rebound percentage (276th) is nothing to write home about; Monmouth has been even worse on the boards (339th). Even with Rutgers being favored in rebounding percentage, Monmouth has pulled down more rebounds per game this season than the Scarlet Knights.
Monmouth does an excellent job with ball security (59th nationally in turnovers per game), while Rutgers ranks 329th.
Monmouth does an excellent job defending the three ball (36th), and Rutgers has shot poorly from deep (302nd)
While Rutgers rebound percentage (276th) is nothing to write home about; Monmouth has been even worse on the boards (339th). Even with Rutgers being favored in rebounding percentage, Monmouth has pulled down more rebounds per game this season than the Scarlet Knights.
Monmouth does an excellent job with ball security (59th nationally in turnovers per game), while Rutgers ranks 329th.
The one major statistical advantage Rutgers has may not help them. Monmouth comes in 340th nationally in fouls per game; however, Rutgers is 245th in free throw percentage (66.5%).
Monmouth does not defend the interior well, but Rutgers has had limited production from their big men this season. It will take an otherworldly performance from Lewis and Diallo (out indefinitely with foot injury) for the Scarlet Knights to score the upset. It's gut check time for the big men. If they're not going to score; they at least have to show heart, and be as physical as possible in the paint.
Most Likely Scenario
Monmouth double digit win
Least Likely Scenario
Rutgers double digit win
How Monmouth Wins
Plays their game...stays hot from deep, hits their free throws, takes care of the ball
How Rutgers Win
Defends the perimeter like their life depends on it, hits at least 75% of their free throws, finds their stroke from deep, physicality during interior defense...the list can go on and on
Prediction
With that out of the way I'll give my farfetched prediction. Call me crazy (because I am), but this game reeks like a Rutgers upset to me. Monmouth is the talk of the state/country at this point after their destruction of Georgetown, Rutgers was embarrassed against George Washington.
We're talking about a game where Monmouth will come into the RAC close to a double digit favorite. Rutgers is playing without (arguably) their best player so far this season (Deshawn Freeman).
Monmouth is easily the better team at this point, it's not even close. Not only have they proven to be more skilled, they've been much much much more consistent.
I may be delusional, but I think there's a strong possibility Rutgers shows some heart and turns this into an ugly, grind it out game. If they don't; it's become pretty obvious that not only have they given up on their coach, but themselves as well.
For Rutgers the final score shouldn't matter, they're expected to lose. What should matter is the effort given on the floor, show some pride and fight on EVERY possession.
Monmouth does not defend the interior well, but Rutgers has had limited production from their big men this season. It will take an otherworldly performance from Lewis and Diallo
Most Likely Scenario
Monmouth double digit win
Least Likely Scenario
Rutgers double digit win
How Monmouth Wins
Plays their game...stays hot from deep, hits their free throws, takes care of the ball
How Rutgers Win
Defends the perimeter like their life depends on it, hits at least 75% of their free throws, finds their stroke from deep, physicality during interior defense...the list can go on and on
Prediction
With that out of the way I'll give my farfetched prediction. Call me crazy (because I am), but this game reeks like a Rutgers upset to me. Monmouth is the talk of the state/country at this point after their destruction of Georgetown, Rutgers was embarrassed against George Washington.
We're talking about a game where Monmouth will come into the RAC close to a double digit favorite. Rutgers is playing without (arguably) their best player so far this season (Deshawn Freeman).
Monmouth is easily the better team at this point, it's not even close. Not only have they proven to be more skilled, they've been much much much more consistent.
I may be delusional, but I think there's a strong possibility Rutgers shows some heart and turns this into an ugly, grind it out game. If they don't; it's become pretty obvious that not only have they given up on their coach, but themselves as well.
For Rutgers the final score shouldn't matter, they're expected to lose. What should matter is the effort given on the floor, show some pride and fight on EVERY possession.
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