2018-19 #AEMBB Week 1 Recap

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Stony Brook made a statement during their first week of OOC action with a nice win at SEC foe South Carolina. The Seawolves have started the season 2-0 with both wins coming on the road in games they were paid to play in. While Jr. Akwasi Yeboah led the way with 24 pts and 11 rebs at South Carolina, So. Elijah Olaniyi opened eyes with 18 pts and 10 rebs versus George Washington in the Stony Brook season opener.

Vermont opened their season with a road win at Boston University who was coming off of a nice win over a less than 100% Northeastern team expected to compete for the CAA title. The Catamounts who trailed by as many as 8 points early in the second half and 5 points with just over 4 minutes remaining came on strong late to earn the victory. So. Stef Smith who has the unenviable task of replacing back to back America Easy POY Trae Bell-Haynes at PG led Vermont in scoring with 22 pts to support the efforts of Catamount stars Anthony Lamb (19 pts, 14 rebs) and Ernie Duncan (18 pts, 5 ast).

Hartford has had a rough start to the season falling at home to CCSU (a team that will be better this year than people expect) and on the road to Utah State and Mississippi State. People are more concerned about the Hawks than they should be at this time, but their inefficiency from deep and their inability to keep opponents off of the offensive glass early in the season are concerning.

Albany competed at Iona, jumping out to an early double digit lead which peaked at 25-10 with 6:18 remaining in the first half. They shot well from deep in their opener, but struggled taking care of the ball as they turned it over 22 times in the four point loss. The inexperienced Great Danes have enough talent and shooting to compete for a top three spot in the conference if they can put it all together.

UMass Lowell has had a solid start to D1 life without Jahad Thomas as they competed with UMass for a solid 25 minutes before the game opened up and were able to overcome a visiting Wagner team at home in OT. I still question the River Hawks interior, but their perimeter led by Sr. Ryan Jones is solid.

Still Unsure

We'll know more about UMBC after their second week of action as they can't be judged off of one performance at a very good Marquette team. The Retrievers face Manhattan and Air Force and High Point/South Dakota before next Monday which will give us a much better feel on life for them post Jairus Lyles.

Binghamton has had a rough early go of it falling at home to Cornell and NJIT. Cornell came on strong over the final 5 minutes, while NJIT opened up that contest in the second half. I'm waiting on fully judging Binghamton until Thomas Bruce is available as they do have some nice pieces on their roster.

Maine started the season with three road contests and will stay on the road for three more during the next two weeks before returning home on 11/28 to face Princeton. It's a work in progress and I still have no feel for this team.

New Hampshire hasn't given us much to go on yet other than a 29 point loss at UMass that they were out of from the beginning. They shot well from deep in the contest, but only 16-40 from two point range and allowed UMass to shoot 75% from two point range and 52.6% from deep.

Week 1 Power Rankings

1. (1-0) Vermont - They're still good

2. (2-0) Stony Brook- Opened some eyes

3. (0-1) Albany- Looked much better than expected at Iona, will probably drop over next week or two

4. (0-3) Hartford- Should be here? Should move up over the next couple of weeks? I think?

5. (0-1) UMBC- Should probably be higher, most likely will be after week 2

6. (1-1) UMass Lowell- Backcourt is fun to watch

7. (0-2) Binghamton- Need the talented Sessom's to make Jr. decisions as a Fr.

8. (0-1) New Hampshire- Life without Tanner Leissner could get weird

9. (0-3) Maine- Need to get back home, need time under their new regime

* Records vs D1 teams only

How concern for the fans ended the Capital Region's best winter sporting event

The University at Albany finally stood up for their basketball program's, and some around the capital region aren't happy.

I can't say I blame those who are upset about the game's cancellation, they've become accustomed to an Albany Cup contest being played between Albany and Siena annually over the past 17 seasons.

For a Siena program with a proud fanbase there's no doubt in their mind's the game should be played on their home court, the Times Union Center. In a way they're not wrong, the game always draws a large crowd and the TUC offers the largest seating
capacity in the region.

Here's the issue... where this contest was played was never really about seating capacity until Siena started beating that drum to garner public support... this has always been about big brother trying to keep little brother in check.

There was certainly a time when Siena was doing Albany a favor just by playing this game. By the time Albany entered Division 1 basketball Siena was already an established program with a strong following in the capital region. This was a chance for Albany to get out in front of basketball fans in the area who may have otherwise ignored their existence.

The results went just as one would expect, with big brother beating up on little brother, winning eight of the first nine contests. Every year Albany would visit Siena at their home arena and get treated like the mid major visiting the perennial power.

Expectations were set.

Big brother would host little brother, who should just be thankful he was allowed to tag along. As the years went on the relationship developed how these always do... little brother was eventually allowed to bring some friends along (student section) and maybe he'd get to choose a song or two to listen to while they hung out (pregame intro video).

While Albany found early success with NCAA Tournament appearances in 2006 and 2007, Siena immediately stole the spotlight back with a very successful three year run from 2008-10 that saw them win an NCAA Tournament game in both the 2009 and 2010 season's under Fran McCaffery.

Just as Albany bottomed out with a 7-25 campaign in 2009-10, Siena had never been stronger. Their head coach was moving on to a Big Ten school in Iowa following a 27-7 season and their third straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

At this point you could make the case that Siena had all of the negotiating power when it came to the Albany Cup. They were a superior team, playing in a superior arena, who was kind enough to allow Albany to even participate.

Then little brother grew up, just as big brother started to stumble.

Albany would win four of five contests from 2011-2015, all on the road at the Times Union Center. By the time the Albany Cup contract would have to be renegotiated again for the 2016 season, little brother finally had some juice and big brother would finally have to accept their existence.

The solution would be tossing Albany a bone, they could host an Albany Cup contest, but it would have to be under a three year contract with two of the three games being played at the Times Union Center.

Little brother would be petty as they tend to be after years of being pushed around; charging high prices for tickets to the game, while making it tough for Siena fans to attend.

Siena had finally acknowledged Albany's existence, they just wouldn't accept them as equals. To put little brother in their place, Siena would immediately state following their visit to SEFCU Arena that they would never return.

The third game in the series would be taken off of Siena's season ticket package, yet would still be played on their home court with the Siena logo prominently displayed at its center. The video broadcast would be Siena all the way, down to the commercials of coach Jimmy Patsos getting fitted for suits.

Siena once again got to use Albany to draw their largest crowd of the season; getting more eyes on their advertisers not only in the arena, but on television.

Here's the current issue however...

There was no longer much reason for Albany to be treated like a second class citizen. In the eight years since Siena had reached their peak Albany had now won six of their eight meetings with an overall record of 169-99 and three NCAA Tournament appearances.

During that same time span Siena had gone 112-151 overall, finishing under .500 five of those eight seasons with zero NCAA Tournament appearances.

We had reached the point where Albany was dominating the series while there was no RPI/SOS/BPI/KPI/FBI/CIA benefit to facing the Saints. If Albany wins the contest it's considered a bad win, if they lose the contest it's considered a bad loss.

Little brother no longer needed big brother and that scared the crap out of big brother.

So what do you do if you're big brother and you have no cards left to play? You get political and try to appeal to the public's emotions. "We can't play at Albany, what about all of those fans who won't be able to attend?!?!"

A program so concerned with capital region basketball fans is willing to let the Albany Cup die rather than visit their opponent every other year. That's truly amazing to me.

This was never about the fans, it was about Siena hanging on for dear life to keep little brother in his place.

UVM's Double Digit Dominance

They weren't just winning, they were dominating.

Fellow America East powers Albany and Stony Brook had lost most of their talent following the 2015-16 season, opening the door for a stretch we may never see again.

The perfect storm created a situation where the Catamounts were able to not only go undefeated in league play, but dominate the field. By the time the dust would settle following their 19-0 run through the America East regular season and playoffs Vermont had won fifteen of their contests by double digits and nine of them by at least 15 points.

The Catamounts would follow up their perfect 2016-17 campaign with a 15-1 regular season in 2017-18, finishing 17-2 overall by the time the America East Playoffs were completed. Their season becomes even more impressive when considering the fact they lost their most talented player in Anthony Lamb just weeks before conference play began.

Over a two year span Vermont had won 36 over their 38 America East contests, with 30 of those wins coming by double digits. To get an idea for how remarkable this was let's take a look at what the next three winningest programs were able to accomplish over the previous two seasons vs conference opponents:

• UMBC 24 wins
• Albany 22 wins
• Stony Brook 21 wins

Vermont had not only won more than anyone else, they had won by double digits six more times than anyone else had won at all.

Their 49 wins vs conference opponents from 2016-18 surpasses their total of 45 wins from 2012-2014. To increase their three year total they would have to win more than 13 games this upcoming season, their total in 2016 between the America East regular and postseason.

Entering 2018-19 the Catamounts will once again have to replace major contributors from the previous season, just as they had to entering 2017-18. Their most important player in Trae Bell-Haynes is gone, their most talented player in Anthony Lamb returns from injury.

With question marks up and down America East rosters this upcoming season it's certainly possible Vermont will be able to win the conference's regular season for a third straight year, if not continue their run of dominance.

In the end however, the only question that truly matters is:

Will they dance?

Hartford goes from Hunter to Hunted in 18-19

A change in one letter will mean all the difference in the world for Hartford heading into 18-19.

Entering 2017-18 the Hawks had lost 15 of their final 19 games the previous season. By the first week in December they had lost 6 of 8 contests against division 1 opponents, including a 36 point blowout at Rider, leaving them with 21 losses in their last 27 contests.

The program that had won just eight conference games over the past two seasons seemed destined to once again find themselves towards the bottom of the America East standings.

Two home wins over fellow Connecticut schools in Quinnipiac and Sacred Heart didn't raise many eyebrows at the time. The wins would be followed by a road loss at Portland, leaving the Hawks at 5-7 on the young season and 4-7 when taking into account only division 1 opponents.

Then something seemed to turn.

Hartford would follow the loss at Portland with three road victories, entering each of these contests as double digit underdogs according to multiple analytics sites. Not only had the Hawks picked up their first road victory of the season, they managed to get three in a row, all in contests they were the heavy underdog.

The win at FIU was a start, out-rebounding high major Rutgers in a road victory was very impressive, but a road victory over Albany to open conference play put the rest of the league on notice.

A team that had just three road victories all of the previous season had just rattled off three straight in December.

After a win over UMass Lowell in their third conference game Hartford would remain over .500 both overall and in league play over their final 16 contests. To put that in perspective the Hawks had not entered a single contest the previous year with a record over .500 and had entered just two over .500 in 2015-16.

A road win at Vermont, the Catamounts only America East loss the past two regular season's, would further convince those still doubting the program that the Hawks were now major players in the AE.

Hartford would finish America East play 7-1 on the road, 11-5 overall and 19-14 on the season. Their third place finish would be their highest since 2013-14, while the 11 wins were their most ever in conference.

With the Hawks returning their top four scorers from conference play last season they'll enter the 2018-19 campaign as a top two preseason pick; their highest since the 2014-15 preseason coaches poll, a year in which they finished 7-9 in conference coming off of ten wins in 2013-14.

The program that had spent recent season's hunting for upsets, will spend this upcoming season looking to avoid them.

With departures, can anyone challenge Anthony Lamb for POY in #AEHoops?

There's talent returning, even if there's only one obvious star heading into the 2018-19 America East men's basketball season.

While the league has seen transition years in the recent past (think following the 15-16 season where only one member of the first team returned and only five of ten returned from the 1st and 2nd team's) this offseason feels a bit different.

The conference will lose all five players selected to the First Team following the 2017-18 season, a bit different from the previous offseason where four of the five members of the 2016-17 First Team returned and seven out of ten returned from the First and Second team's.

If you dive in even deeper you'll notice that three of the five players on the America East Second Team from last season return and two of the five from the Third Team return, leaving us with five all conference selections out of a possible fifteen returning for the 2018-19 season.

Once again, that's five players out of the best fifteen players from last season as voted on by the coaches.

If you include David Nichols who finished on the First Team following the 16-17 season, yet was left off of all three team's last year, you're now looking at five of the top sixteen players from last season no longer in the league.

Here's your list:

First-Team All-Conference
*Trae Bell-Haynes, Sr., G, Vermont
Joe Cremo, Jr., G, Albany
*Tanner Leissner, Sr., F, New Hampshire
Jairus Lyles, Sr., G, UMBC
*Jahad Thomas, Sr., F, UMass Lowell

Second-Team All-Conference
John Carroll, Jr., F, Hartford
Travis Charles, Sr., F, Albany
Ernie Duncan, Jr., G, Vermont
Drew Urquhart, Sr., F, Vermont
Akwasi Yeboah, So., F, Stony Brook

Third-Team All-Conference
Aaron Calixte, Jr., G, Maine
Jason Dunne, Jr., G, Hartford
*Payton Henson, Sr., F, Vermont
J.R. Lynch, Jr., G, Hartford
K.J. Maura, Sr., G, UMBC

Generally a low major conference is going to see substantial loss from their top two all conference selections, as the best players are usually upperclassmen, if not Seniors. Add talented low major players transferring up for their final season to player graduation and you end up with the current scenario in the America East.

The conference is expected to be down in 2018-19 by most, which isn't an unfair assessment. One thing to keep in mind as it happens in every conference in every season, there will end up being major contributors who either didn't get the opportunity to showcase their talent last season or are completely new to the league as an incoming JUCO, Freshman or transfer.

Now the good news.

Anthony Lamb should be back healthy after a year of sitting out of conference action due to a foot fracture suffered late in out of conference play, an injury which left him off of all three conference team's. Lamb was already most writer's preseason POY heading into the 2017-18 season and he now has a year of strictly sitting, watching and learning during conference play under his belt.

If Vegas (or Delaware or New Jersey) created odds for the 2018-19 America East POY Anthony Lamb would be the heavy favorite as of today. There's no debating that, making the real question to ask "Who would have the best odds following Lamb?"

The answer isn't so simple.

Ernie Duncan, Lamb's teammate at Vermont, would have a legitimate shot if they weren't on the same team. The Hartford trio of John Carroll, J.R. Lynch and Jason Dunne are all expected to perform well on a Hartford team which will be picked first or second (first by me) in just about every America East preseason poll.

That pretty much concludes your second tier, with the first tier inhabited solely by Anthony Lamb.

It's worth keeping in mind that the award historically tends to favor players on team's that win the league. There's instances where it goes to an obviously more talented player on a top three team, but it doesn't happen often, which is why this next player finds himself in the third tier.

Akwasi Yeboah enters the 2018-19 America East season as the leading returning scorer after averaging 15.3 points in conference last season which is generally an automatic for preseason POY contention, but many believe Stony Brook's absolute ceiling is a third place finish which makes his POY chances a long shot.

Finally we have the dark horses. Their team will need to perform well over current expectations while they themselves have excellent individual statistics.

Arkel Lamar and Joe Sherburne are the returning players most likely to step up for UMBC with the graduation of Jairus Lyles and K.J. Maura. I've already seen some who like UMBC over Stony Brook for the third slot in the America East in 2018-19, if there's any shot of that happening you'd have to assume these two will play a major part.

If Binghamton can figure it out, which would appear to be a HUGE IF after the conference season they had last year, it's a safe bet that Thomas Bruce and J.C. Show will have played a major role in it. Bruce should be a guaranteed double-double in conference and if healthy has no one but himself to blame if he's not viewed as a dominant player in this conference by season's end.

Ryan Jones should be handed the keys to the car at UMass Lowell with the departures of Jahad Thomas and Matt Harris. I've seen UML as a top five team in other preseason polls, if they're going to get there this is the guy you'd have to expect to light it up for them.

Here's a quick list of my favorites to land on the first or second team at the conclusion of the 2018-19 season. It's July... I haven't heard much publicly from coaching staff's and I haven't contacted any privately (last thing I'm doing is bothering them during the live July recruiting period when team workouts are first getting started) so your guess is as good as mine at this point.

Anthomy Lamb (POY)
John Carroll
J.R. Lynch
Akwasi Yeboah
Ernie Duncan
Jason Dunne
Ryan Jones
Thomas Bruce
Joe Sherburne
Arkel Lamar

Overall value (OOC + Conf) of players in 17-18 according to barttorvik.com & College Basketball Reference:

Player	PRPGI	PER	Win Share
Anthony Lamb	2.9	25.3	2.0
John Carroll	2.8	20.7	3.7
Akwasi Yeboah	2.4	19.3	3.3
Ernie Duncan	2.9	16	3.6
Thomas Bruce	1.4	20.5	3.2
J.C. Show	1.5	14.7	2.2
J.R. Lynch	2	15.2	3.1
Jason Dunne	2.1	15.7	3
Everett Duncan	3.2	11.9	3.3
Ryan Jones	1.2	13.8	1.8
Joe Sherburne	1.9	15.9	3.6
Arkel Lamar	0.8	15.6	2.8

Quick list of the top three returners in each program:

Albany
Devonte Campbell
Ahmad Clark
The Karate Kid Nick Fruscio

Binghamton
Thomas Bruce
J.C. Show
Everson Davis

Hartford
John Carroll
J.R. Lynch
Jason Dunne

Maine
Andrew Fleming
Isiah White
Ilija Stojiljkovic

New Hampshire
Josh Hopkins
Jordan Reed
John Ogwuche

Stony Brook
Akwasi Yeboah
Jaron Cornish
Elijah Olaniyi

UMass Lowell
Ryan Jones
Josh Gantz
Obadiah Noel

UMBC
Joe Sherburne
Arkel Lamar
Daniel Akin

Vermont
Anthony Lamb
Ernie Duncan
Everett Duncan