#AEHOOPS The Swing '19

Standings

Power Rankings

1. Vermont- The Catamounts currently lead the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and rank second in adjusted defensive efficiency on top of having the best record halfway through. Their toughest test on the back end of conference play will be a visit to UMBC on 2/21.
2. UMBC- They've won at Vermont which gives them the bump over Stony Brook in this spot. Sure you can also ad that they've already beaten Stony Brook, but that was holding down home court in a rock fight. They may need to win all four games before their three game stretch vs UVM, at Albany and at Stony Brook to hold onto a top 3 finish in conference. The Retrievers defense has been fun to watch, the offense has been somewhere between brutal and good enough.
3. Stony Brook- Best adjusted defense in conference, second to worst adjusted offense in conference. That pretty much sums up where they're currently at. Their only two losses came against the two team's above them which you can take with a glass half full or glass half empty approach. The quick offensive fix would be to stop turning the ball over... the one that gets them over the hump would be finding a way to finish more shots at the rim and knocking down a couple more from deep. Easy to forget how young their roster is since they've played so well this season.
4. Hartford- This is where it gets a little messy as you can tell from the standings above. The Hawks are second best in adjusted offensive efficiency, but just can't get enough stops vs the top half of the league. This Senior-laden team needs to make a choice right now... either they commit to hard nose defense 100% of the time or their careers are over much sooner than they'd like.
5. UMass Lowell- They get the nod here thanks to earlier wins vs UMBC, vs Albany and at Hartford. The offense can be dynamic (and very fun to watch), the defense is the worst in the league. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction mainly because they can't stop anyone from scoring inside the arc.
6. Albany- They're talented, they're young, the recent play may be a product of their schedule, it may not be. We're four games away from knowing if this group is ahead of schedule. Not sure how you convince a young group that once you start winning is when you have to start working even harder rather than believing you've accomplished something, but this will suffice as my homer pep talk.
7. Maine- I kinda sorta love watching this team play. Part of it is the honeymoon period when a team's culture is first being changed and part of it is how well they've played. Maine basketball is competent and relevant right now which is a pretty big deal.
8. Binghamton- Tough year so far, but they held serve at home vs Maine and New Hampshire. Should only take winning one of those games on the road in the back half to get them into the AE tournament where anything can happen. Their adjusted defense is second worst so far as they've been hurt badly from deep and by their opponents on the offensive glass (both worst in AE).
9. New Hampshire- The defense has been pretty solid, the offense is just nonexistent. What's amazing is their best offensive game probably came at home vs Vermont, other than that it hasn't been pretty.

Right now there's only one consistent team on both sides of the ball and who it surprises no one. Getting embarrassed by UMBC at home was probably the wake up call Vermont needed. They're deep enough that they're good (and still the best team in the league) without Anthony Lamb, but with him in the mix they're very good. Looking around at the rest of the league you just see team's with issues on one side of the ball or the other, plus some who struggle on both ends. As far as regular season conference results go Vermont not winning the AE would be one of the biggest upsets in the nation. That being said once the tournament comes around anything can happen as you saw last year.

The recipe for the single game letdown is clear... Vermont is above everyone else because they excel on both sides of the ball. On any night if they're struggling on one side the other side has to be that much better, if not they've now made their opponent their equal.

Let me break that gibberish down in a simpler way: UMBC and SBU are not Vermont because they don't have Vermont's offense. Well if Vermont's offense is off they better make sure their defense is at least as good as UMBC's and SBU's that night.

Current AE 1st Team

Anthony Lamb (POY)

Joe Sherburne

Ernie Duncan

Akwasi Yeboah

Christian Lutete

#AEHOOPS 2018-19 OOC Recap/Conf Preview

Vermont (113)

OOC Record: 10-4

OOC D1 Record: 9-4

OOC SOS: 88

Top OOC Wins

vs Harvard (86)

vs Yale (92)

vs Northeastern (144)

@ George Mason (168)

Starters (# of gms):

Anthony Lamb (14)

Stef Smith (14)

Ernie Duncan (12)

Isaiah Moll (2)

Everett Duncan (7)

Robin Duncan (8)

Ben Shungu (1)

Ryan Davis (2)

Ra Kpedi (6)

Samuel Dingba (4)

Team Stats

PPG: 76.1

RPG: 34.6

APG: 11.8

SPG: 5.5

BPG: 4.2

TOVPG: 10.6

We'll just call them Anthony Lamb and friends at this point. Life isn't so bad when you have the best player in the league coming off of an injury shortened season in which he got to sit and learn the game from the sidelines. Vermont heads into conference play as the America East favorite after a solid out of conference that included multiple top 150 home wins.

The Catamounts most likely won't be as dominant as their 2017 to 2018 stretch which saw them combine for 31 wins and just 1 loss in conference during the regular season, but I do expect them to win the league with somewhere around 3-4 losses. Some have labeled Stony Brook as the new league favorite after they had a very nice OOC showing, but not this guy. I'm not falling for this one again, not after last season.

You remember that one right? The one where they lost Anthony Lamb just prior to conference play before ripping off a 15-1 record. They can find their bulletin board material somewhere else, cause it won't be here.

Where They Excel

• 19th in nation in Turnover % at 15.6
• 32nd in nation in Defensive FT Rate at 26.5
• 46th in nation in FT% at 74.9
• 89th in nation in Defensive Rebound % at 26.5

They won't hand you the ball, they won't send you to the free throw line, they won't allow you to grab offensive rebounds and they're actually hitting their free throws this year...pretty solid recipe for winning if you ask me.

Where They Struggle

• 269th in nation in Offensive Rebound % at 25.4
• 232nd in nation in 3FG% at 32.5
• 256th in nation in 3FG% Defense at 36

You can pretty much ignore the first two since the offensive rebounding is more of a get back defensive strategy than anything else and this team is still full of shooters that are going to hit from deep. Their defending of the three point line may be an issue, but could be a result of their OOC matchups.

Stony Brook (157)

OOC Record: 12-3

OOC D1 Record: 11-3

OOC SOS: 255

Top OOC Wins

@ South Carolina (95)

@ Rhode Island (113)

@ Northern Iowa (219)

@ LIU Brooklyn (243)

Starters (# of gms):

Akwasi Yeboah (14)

Miles Latimer (15)

Elijah Olaniyi (12)

Andrew Garcia (1)

Jaron Cornish (15)

Jules Moor (3)

Jeff Otchere (15)

Team Stats

PPG: 75.0

RPG: 40

APG: 10.9

SPG: 5.7

BPG: 4.0

TOVPG: 13.8

Who got paid more money this winter to beat people up: Jon Jones or Stony Brook? The Seawolves collected cash up and down the East Coast during OOC play, even venturing out to the Midwest. The question at the moment is the health of Akwasi Yeboah who is my choice to push Anthony Lamb in the player of the year race if healthy.

The good news for Stony Brook is that they feature a pretty deep roster even if Yeboah is slow to come back, which currently features three other double digit scorers in Miles Latimer (12.1 ppg), Elijah Olaniyi (11.5 ppg) and Andrew Garcia (10.2 ppg). Combine those four with Jaron Cornish who is currently in the top 10% of the nation in assist % and Jeff Otchere who is as good as it gets when it comes to blocking the ball, rebounding the ball and getting to the free throw line it's not hard to tell why some have picked this team to win the league.

Like I've said on Twitter though, if they want the league they're going to have to take it...and I'll believe it when I see it.

Where They Excel:

• 28th in nation in Offensive Rebounding % at 35.3
• 74th in nation in FT% at 73.3
• 86th in nation in FT rate at 37.6
• 89th in nation in 3FG% at 36.2

If you can get to the free throw line at a high rate and hit a high percentage of your attempts you'll always be in good shape. Combine that with their ability to rebound misses on the offensive end and it's not hard to see why they've excelled during the first half of this season. If they can continue to rebound the way they've been, combined with their ability to knock down the deep ball, it will go a long way to cover up their biggest flaw on the offensive end so far.

Where They Struggle

• 311th in nation in Defensive FT Rate at 41.5
• 275th in nation in 2FG% at 46.6
• 253rd in nation in Defensive Turnover %

The red flag is how often they've sent their opponents to the FT line so far this season with a couple of the really ugly games coming against team's they're easily more athletic than. In a league where the top contenders should hit a high percentage of their free throws this season, it could become an issue down the road. The interior scoring isn't as ugly as it seems as they've had some good, some average and some bad games from two point range. The combined 51-140 in their three games vs Hofstra, Delaware and South Carolina is really what makes the 2FG shooting percentage as ugly as it is.

Hartford (188)

Top OOC Wins

@ Boston College (117)

vs Marist (195)

vs Bowling Green (196)

vs Oakland (205)

Starters (# of gms):

John Carroll (12)

Jason Dunne (15)

J.R. Lynch (15)

George Blagojevic (14)

Travis Weatherington (15)

Nikola Colovic (3)

Max Twyman (1)

Team Stats

PPG: 74.0

RPG: 30.7

APG: 13

SPG: 7.7

BPG: 1.6

TOVPG: 13.9

This team is old, as in I'm 65% sure this is the only roster in the country besides Nevada where every member can legally go out drinking after a game. Their top five scorers are Seniors with their roster containing seven total who contributed in out of conference action.

Their early season schedule was road heavy and their play started to concern some people who began to believe they had no shot of repeating last years success. They however appear to be just fine entering conference action.

The Hawks currently feature three players in Carroll, Dunne and Lynch averaging at least 15 points with a fourth in Blagojevic averaging 13.4. For most of the team this is their last go-round...make it worthwhile.

Where They Excel

• 11th in nation in FT% at 77.7
• 67th in nation in Defensive Turnover % at 21.4
• 107th in nation in 3FG% at 35.7
• 109th in nation in Defensive FT rate at 31.1
• 125th in nation in FT rate at 35.9

This Hawks team has some similarities to Stony Brook so far this season as they've been able to get to the free throw line, knock down a high percentage of the attempts and knock down a high percentage of their three point attempts. It's a safe bet that the offense will be there for them this conference season, the questions that still remain are on the other end.

Where they Struggle

• 334th in nation in Opponent Offensive Rebound % at 34.8
• 328th in nation in 2FG% Defense at 56.7

It puts a solid amount of pressure on your offense if you're giving up a ton of easy buckets on the defensive end, especially if they're coming off of second chance opportunities. Duke going 30-43 and Utah State going 34-58 from two point range makes the overall number look uglier than it really is, but the interior defense and defensive rebounding still needs to improve if they plan on a top 2 finish in conference this season.

UMass Lowell (239)

OOC Record: 8-7

OOC D1 Record: 6-7

OOC SOS: 259

Top OOC Wins

vs NJIT (160)

@ Sacred Heart (267)

Army (268) (neutral)

Starters (# of gms):

Christian Lutete (15)

Obadiah Noel (15)

Josh Gantz (15)

Ryan Jones (15)

Darius Henderson (11)

Joey Glynn (3)

Connor Bennett (1)

Team Stats

PPG: 84.1

RPG: 37.1

APG: 17.5

SPG: 6.3

BPG: 3.1

TOVPG: 15.5

The River Hawks boast a similar statistical profile to the land Hawks, just with a younger roster in what was against an easier out of conference schedule. UMass Lowell enters conference play with five players averaging double figures in scoring led by Christian Lutete at 17.4 ppg and Obadiah Noel at 16.1 ppg. Their offense has been one of the best in the league, while their defense has been one of the worst.

Where They Excel

• 26th in nation in Effective FG% at 55.6
• 27th in nation in 2FG% at 56.7
• 107th in nation in 3FG% at 35.7

They've shot the ball extremely well during out of conference play, there's no doubt about that. This offense should be more than enough to carry them into the top 5 of the conference standings.

Where They Struggle

• 316th in nation in Adjusted Defense at 110.8
• 309th in nation in 2FG% Defense at 55.6
• 264th in nation in Turnover % at 20.7
• 279th in nation in Opponent Offensive Rebound % at 31.6

The defense has been one of the worst in the country mainly because just like Hartford they've allowed opponents to shoot way too high of a percentage from inside the arc. Their overall defensive rating actually ends up a little worse than the land Hawks because they allow opponents to shoot slightly better from deep and allow them to get to the free throw line more often. The only thing that's held the UMass Lowell offense down a bit has been their turnover rate and FT% (68, 231st), since as you've seen when they're able to get a shot off from the floor they shoot at a high percentage.

UMBC (257)

OOC Record: 8-7

OOC D1 Record: 5-7

OOC SOS: 305

Top OOC Wins

High Point (231) (neutral)

Air Force (247) (neutral)

@ Drexel (252)

Starters (# of gms):

Joe Sherburne (15)

Brandon Horvath (2)

KJ Jackson (14)

Arkel Lamar (6)

Max Curran (12)

Ricky Council II (15)

Daniel Akin (3)

Jose Placer (1)

R.J. Eytle-Rock (7)

Team Stats

PPG: 70.9

RPG: 34.9

APG: 14.8

SPG: 8.2

BPG: 2.2

TOVPG: 13.4

It's always tough coming off of a season that had so much fanfare, especially when the major pieces from that squad have moved on. Joe Sherburne has been their rock so far as he's hit a high percentage of his shots from both three point range (45.6%) and two point range (53.4%). The one concern for Sherburne is his inability to get to the free throw line as he's only attempted 12 of them (hitting 11) during out of conference action. Ricky Council (21-53) has provided help to Sherburne from deep, but the rest of the team has shoot poorly from the perimeter. This team's offense will go as KJ Jackson goes.

Where They Excel

• 12th in nation in Opponent Turnover % at 24.2
• 166th in nation in Adjusted Defense at 102.4

The UMBC defense statistically comes into conference play as the second best in the league from out of conference action, even having allowed opponents to shoot well against them thanks to their elite rate at turning their opponent over. Even with the turnover rate it's been somewhat of a struggle as it's been turnover or bust at times and their issues on the other end don't help.

Where They Struggle

• 309th in Adjusted Offense at 94.4
• 292nd in nation in Effective FG% at 46.6
• 292nd in nation in Offensive Rebound % at 24.5
• 288th in nation in 3FG% at 30.7

So they haven't shot it well and haven't been hitting the offensive glass, that's pretty much how you end up with one of the least efficient offenses in the country through the first half of the season. They've actually done a decent job taking care of the ball, but it hasn't been elite enough to make up for their shooting percentages.

Albany (254)

OOC Record: 5-10

OOC D1 Record: 4-10

OOC SOS: 290

Top OOC Wins

@ Canisius (237)

Starters (# of gms):

Ahmad Clark (15)

Cameron Healy (15)

Adam Lulka (15)

Antonio Rizzuto (4)

Devonte Campbell (12)

Brent Hank (14)

Team Stats:

PPG: 69.1

RPG: 35.5

APG: 12.3

SPG: 5.6

BPG: 2.0

TOVPG: 15.1

They start Freshman (or redshirt Freshman) at four out of five positions right now, which is pretty much all you need to know about how the first half of their season went. Ahmad Clark (19.1 ppg) is as elite of a guard as this league has and he's surrounded by some talent, that's still trying to find their way. Cameron Healy is already a top tier perimeter shooter in this league as a redshirt freshman as he's hit 41.3% from deep on 109 attempts already.

Where They Excel

• 21st in nation in FT% at 76.5
• 127th in nation in 3FG% at 35.1
• 130th in nation in FT Rate at 35.1
• 165th in nation in Offensive Rebound % at 28.8

Albany has shooters which enables them to space the floor and knock down some perimeter shots. Their ability to get to the free throw line and knock down the attempts have definitely helped out an offense that has two major flaws so far this season.

Where They Struggle

• 313th in nation in 2FG% at 44.4
• 303rd in nation in Turnover % at 21.6
• 261st in nation in Adjusted Defense at 106.8

Finishing inside the arc has been an issue so far for the Great Danes this year while a high rate of turnovers have limited their shot attempts. Their defense has looked competent one moment and lost others, the curse of having such a young roster.

Binghamton (330)

OOC Record: 4-11

OOC D1 Record: 2-11

OOC SOS: 285

Top OOC Wins

@ LIU Brooklyn (243)

vs Sacred Heart (267)

Starters (# of gms):

Sam Sessoms (15)

J.C. Show (15)

Chancellor Barnard (15)

Caleb Stewart (14)

Albert Odero (1) (Left Team)

Richard Caldwell (9)

Timmy Rose (1)

Everson Davis (5)

Team Stats:

PPG: 66.9

RPG: 34.5

APG: 10.3

SPG: 5.1

BPG: 6.2

TOVPG: 15.1

Freshman Sam Sessoms has been a bright spot for a Binghamton team still trying to find their way. Sessoms main flaw so far this season is the same as one of the overall team issues (FT shooting). The Bearcats defense hasn't been awful so far this year, but not nearly good enough to make up for their offensive issues.

Where They Excel

• 53rd in nation in Opponent FT Rate at 28.2
• 111th in nation in Opponent 2FG% at 48.4

Binghamton has done a solid job defending the interior so far this season while also limiting their opponents trips to the free throw line.

Where They Struggle

• 331st in nation in Adjust Offensive Efficiency at 91.6
• 301st in nation in Opponent Turnover % at 16.4
• 330th in nation in Offensive Rebound % at 21.9
• 303rd in nation in Opponent Offensive Rebound % at 32.7
• 311th in nation in 3FG% at 29.7
• 344th in nation in FT% at 59.9

The offense has been bad due to poor three point shooting, poor free throw shooting and poor offensive rebounding. The defense has been unable to force turnovers and that may correlate to their limiting of opponents FT opportunities (fouls). The good news is the rebounding issues could be taken care of with the return of Thomas Bruce.

Maine (335)

OOC Record: 2-13

OOC D1 Record: 1-13

OOC SOS: 85

Top OOC Wins

vs Fordham (188)

Starters (# of gms):

Isaiah White (15)

Andrew Fleming (15)

Sergio El Darwich (9)

Vilgot Larsson (14)

Vincent Eze (5)

Terion Moss (3)

Ilija Stojiljkovic (10)

Celio Araujo (4)

Team Stats:

PPG: 62.5

RPG: 31.7

APG: 14.4

SPG: 7.7

BPG: 3.3

TOVPG: 15.5

Maine played pretty tough at home during non conference as the trip up there for opposing teams is never easy. The double overtime win over Fordham was a nice one and they also played CCSU tight in a double overtime loss. The Black Bears have been led in scoring by Isaiah White (15.1 ppg), Andrew Fleming (13.6 ppg) and Sergio El Darwich 10 (ppg) in non conference action. Overall the program is still working on a rebuild, but as always team's have to be careful when visiting.

Where They Excel

• 122nd in nation in 2FG% at 52.5
• 175th in nation in Opponent 2FG% at 50.2

Okay it's a stretch, but it's something. The Black Bears have done a sold job scoring inside the arc as well as limiting their opponents ability to score inside the arc.

Where They Struggle

• 336th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
• 339th in nation in Turnover % at 23.8
• 308th in nation in FT Rate at 26.7
• 336th in nation in 3FG% at 27.7
• 326th in nation in FT% at 62.8

A high turnover rate combined with a low three point field goal percentage, low free throw rate and a low free throw percentage are the recipe for a bad offense in modern day basketball.

New Hampshire (343)

OOC Record: 2-11

OOC D1 Record: 0-11

OOC SOS: 243

Top OOC Wins

N/A

Starters (# of gms):

Jordan Reed (10)

Josh Hopkins (6)

Jayden Martinez (5)

Elijah Jordan (12)

Nick Guadarrama (5)

David Watkins (8)

Mark Carbone (3)

Marque Maultsby (3)

Chris Lester (7)

David Hall (3)

Luke Rosinksi (3)

Team Stats:

PPG: 67.1

RPG: 35.5

APG: 11.8

SPG: 4.3

BPG: 2.2

TOVPG: 12.2

While all of the advanced stats are pretty ugly New Hampshire had several close losses in out of conference play. Jordan Reed leads the way for them in scoring with 11.1 ppg while four other Wildcats are averaging at least 8 ppg.

Where They Excel

• 89th in nation in Turnover % at 17.5
• 99th in nation in Opponent Offensive Rebound % at 26.7

During out of conference play they took care of the ball while keeping their opponents off of the offensive glass. Now if they could just turn those offensive shots into makes they can steal some wins in conference.

Where They Struggle

• 347th in nation in AdjustedOffensive Efficiency
• 301st in nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

I won't get into all of the stats because that's basically all you need to know. The offense wasn't good, the defense wasn't good. They were able to somewhat defend the three point line during non conference at least.

Projected AE First Team

• Anthony Lamb (POY)
• Akwasi Yeboah
• J.R. Lynch
• Ahmad Clark
• Ernie Duncan
• Joe Sherburne

Yeah I put six on here, deal with it...this league loves people tying for awards.

Projected Conference Standings

1. Vermont
2. Stony Brook
3. Hartford
4. Albany
5. UMBC
6. UMass Lowell
7. Binghamton
8. New Hampshire
9. Maine